000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272156 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jan 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California Gale Warning: Swaths of gale force nw winds currently across the gulf waters n of 25N will expand s across the entire gulf waters later tonight, with frequent gusts to gale force surrounding the narrow swaths of 35 kt. Seas are forecast to build to about 13 ft in the open fetch waters along 26N. The gradient will relax on Sun afternoon. EPAC Gale Warning: A quasi-stationary surface ridge extends from 32N130W to 14N100W. Minimal gale force winds are observed along the Baja coast from 28N to 29.5N, and expected to persist through sunrise on Sat. Strong to near gale force ne winds will extend sw from the gale area to near 22N120W late tonight, and continue through Sat before beginning to diminish on Sat night. EPAC Gale Warning: Several cyclonic swirls are noted across the tropical waters from roughly 06N to 20N between 128W and 140W. For simplicity a mean low pressure center is analyzed as a 1011 mb low at 15N133W with with 30 to 35 kt gale force winds outward 360 nm n of the low, and expected to persist for only a few more hours. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm either side of a line from 16.5N132W to 08N140W. However, a large area of strong to near gale easterly winds surround this gale area from 12N to 27N w of 118W. The pressure gradient will begin to relax on Sat, with winds diminishing below gale force around mid day on Sun. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong northerly winds currently in and downstream of the gulf will diminish to a fresh breeze early tonight. A stronger gap wind event is forecast beginning on Sat evening with gale conditions Sat night through sunrise on Tue. The strongest winds of 30 to 40 kt area expected on Sun afternoon and Sun night with seas building to 19 ft near 14N96W. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for additional details on these warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends sw off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 05N77W to 03N90W where scatterometer winds indicate that the ITCZ forms and continues westward from 03N90W to 03N114W to 12N128W, but lacks significant convection at the moment. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See special features section above for gale conditions along the Baja Peninsula, across the Gulf of California and developing in and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Long period nw swell in the form of 7 to 11 ft seas are observed elsewhere across the open waters w of 98W. These seas will gradually subside over the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong ene winds expected early tonight and continuing through sunrise on Sat. Strong winds will resume on Sat evening, and pulse to a strong breeze through Sun evening when the gradient will tighten with seas building to about 10 ft downstream of the gulf waters near 09N88W on Mon. The gradient will further tighten on Mon night with near gale force ne winds and seas building to 11 ft. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal n winds expected each night through the upcoming weekend. Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft, are occurring elsewhere until swells from the gap events develop over the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See special features section above for a gale warning. Strong southerly winds and large seas will spread e over the waters n of 22N w of 138W beginning on Sun, all ahead of a cold front moving into the area at 32N140W on Mon, and reaching from 32N136W to 19N140W late Tue. $$ Nelson