000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jan 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... EPAC Gale Warning: A surface trough that formed on Wednesday evening remains across the tropical waters from roughly 08N138W to 16N134W with strong to near gale force NE to E winds present within about 120 nm W of the trough axis. A broader area of fresh to strong NE to E winds is present in the vicinity of the trough from 15N to 23N between 125W and 137W with seas ranging from 10 to 13 ft. A surface low is forecast to form along the trough near 13N135W at 2100 UTC. Strong to near gale force winds will expand outward across the EPAC waters from roughly 13N to 25N W of 121W. The gradient between the low and 1032 mb high pressure to the N will support gale force winds within about 360 nm NE quadrant of the low at 0600 UTC Fri and 30 to 40 kt NE to E winds in the low N semicircle at 1200 UTC. The low will move W of 140W Saturday near 0600 UTC and winds in the forecast waters will reduce to strong to near gale winds. EPAC Gale Warning: A surface ridge will extend across the area from 32N130W to 19N109W early Fri and will in part support fresh to strong NE winds within 330 nm of Baja Peninsula from 24N to 29N. Gale winds already in the Gulf of California will further intesify the winds to gale force near 1200 UTC Friday within 30 nm off the Baja coast from 28N to 29N with a fetch of strong to near gale winds extending approximated 420 nm SW of the Baja coast. Gulf of California Gale Warning: Fresh to strong NW to N winds are across the central gulf waters this morning. The pressure gradient will further tighten today leading to the development of gale force winds nearly over the entire gulf by Friday at 1200 UTC, continuing and expanding further S across the gulf through early Sunday. With the wind trajectory parallel to the gulf waters, expect frequent gusts to gale force surrounding the smaller swaths of 35 kt sustained winds. Seas are forecast to build to between 8 and 13 ft in the open fetch waters. The pressure gradient will finally relax by mid day on Sun. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for additional details on these warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 03N91W to 05N105W. The ITCZ continues from 05N105W to 08N120W to 08N133W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 07N to 10N between 122W and 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends SE across the far offshore waters W of 110W. Long period NW swell in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas, is propagating SE across the open waters W of 110W. These large seas are forecast to subside to 7 to 9 ft by this evening, then be reinforced by another round of seas of 11 to 13 ft propagating SE across the waters N of 28N tonight and Fri. See the special features section for gale conditions along the Baja Peninsula. Mixing SW and NW swell are producing seas of 5 to 8 ft between 96W and 110W today. Seas will build from the N again on Fri night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: strong to near gale force northerly winds are expected to begin tonight. Seas will build to 11 ft downstream of the gulf early Fri. The north winds will diminish to fresh to strong speeds Fri afternoon. A stronger gap wind event is forecast beginning on Sat night. Gale conditions will then continue through Mon evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh ENE nocturnal winds are expected early in the morning Friday. Strong gap winds are forecast to pulse on Fri through Mon nights, with seas building to about 9 ft downstream of the gulf waters near 10.5N87.5W. Gulf of Panama: Fresh N nocturnal winds are expected each night through the upcoming weekend, except very brief strong winds are forecast tonight. Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft, are occurring elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See special features section above for the gale warnings. Otherwise, large NW swell and combined seas to 12 ft across the discussion waters W of 93W are being reinforced by another round of NW swell that are already entering the NW corner of the discussion area. $$ Ramos