000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260958 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 734 UTC Thu Jan 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... EPAC Gale Warning: A surface trough that formed on Wednesday evening remains across the tropical waters from roughly 08N140W to 11N138W to 14N136W with strong to near gale force NE to E winds are present within about 120 nm N of the trough, and a broader area of fresh to strong NE to E winds is present up to 600 nm northeastward from the trough. A surface low is forecast to form along the trough near 13N134W today. Strong to near gale force winds will expand outward across the EPAC waters from roughly 10N to 25N W of 122W. The gradient between the low and 1032 mb high pressure to the N will support gale force winds within about 240 nm N of the low on tonight through Fri evening when the low will pass W across 140W. EPAC Gale Warning: A surface ridge will extend across the area from 32N130W to 17N104W on Fri with strong NE winds developing across the offshore waters along the northern Baja Peninsula early Fri, with minimal gale force winds expected along the Baja coast from 27.5N to 29.5N on Fri afternoon. Gulf of California Gale Warning: Fresh NW to N winds will be locally strong across the central gulf waters this morning. The pressure gradient will further tighten today. Strong NW flow is expected over the entire gulf tonight. Embedded swaths of near gale force winds will develop by late tonight, then continue through early Sun. With the wind trajectory parallel to the gulf waters, expect frequent gusts to gale force surrounding the smaller swaths of 35 kt sustained winds. Seas are forecast to build to between 8 and 13 ft in the open fetch waters along 26N on Fri night into Sat. The pressure gradient will finally relax by mid day on Sun. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for additional details on these warnings. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 04N88W to 02N94W to 05N104W. The ITCZ continues from 05N104W to 08N119W to 07N130W to 08N138W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 06N to 08N between 125W and 128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends SE across the far offshore waters W of 110W. Long period NW swell in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas, is propagating SE across the open waters W of 110W. These large seas are forecast to subside to 7 to 10 ft by this evening, then be reinforced by another round of seas of 11 to 13 ft propagating SE across the waters N of 28N tonight and Fri. See the special features section for gale conditions along the Baja Peninsula. Mixing SW and NW swell are producing seas of 5 to 8 ft between 96W and 110W today. Seas will build from the N again on Fri night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: strong northerly winds are expected to begin on this evening. Seas will build to 11 ft downstream of the gulf near 15N95W early Fri. The north winds will diminish to fresh speeds Fri afternoon, then briefly increase to locally strong on Fri evening. A stronger gap wind event is forecast beginning on Sat night. Gale conditions will then continue through Mon evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh ENE nocturnal winds expected early this morning and again on Thu night. A strong gap winds are forecast to pulse on Fri through Mon nights, with seas building to about 9 ft downstream of the gulf waters near 10.5N87.5W. Gulf of Panama: Fresh N nocturnal winds are expected each night through the upcoming weekend, except very brief strong winds are forecast tonight. Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 5 ft, are occurring elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See special features section above for the gale warnings. Otherwise, large NW swell and combined seas to 12 ft across the discussion waters W of 93W are being reinforced by another round of NW swell that are already entering the NW corner of the discussion area. $$ cam