000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242148 RRA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jan 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The southern end of a cold front extends off the nw coast of 
Costa Rica, and is accompanied by broken low to mid level 
clouds. A surface trough extends from 06N86W to 05N108W, and is 
also accompanied by broken low clouds with intermittent showers. 
The ITCZ extends from 09N105W to 05N120W to 02N140W, but lacks 
significant convection.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A low level trough is analyzed from 25N109W to 17N111W, with 
broken to mid level clouds observed within 75 nm of the trough 
axis. Long period nw swell in the form of 8 to 16 ft seas, is 
propagating se across the area w of 110W. These large seas are 
forecast to subside to 8 to 11 ft on Wed. Hazardous near-shore 
marine conditions in the associated dangerous surf is expected 
to continue until the seas subside.

Mixing sw and nw swell resulting in seas of 7 to 11 ft are 
expected between 96W and 110W through early tonight, and 
subsiding to 4 to 7 ft on Wed. 

Gulf of California: moderate nw to n winds tonight are expected 
to increase to a fresh breeze late Wed, and further increase to 
locally strong across the central gulf waters on Wed evening. 
The gradient will tighten some more throughout Thu with strong 
nw flow expected across the entire gulf waters on Thu night, 
with embedded swaths of near gale force winds. Seas are forecast 
to build to 11 ft in the open fetch waters along 26N on Fri 
night into Sat.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: strong northerly winds are expected to 
begin on Thu evening and rapidly increase to near gale force 
late Thu night with seas building to 10 ft downstream of the 
gulf near 15N95W. The north winds will diminish to a fresh 
breeze mid day Fri, then briefly increase to locally strong on 
Fri evening.
       
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh ene winds expected tonight and Wed 
night, then increasing to a little with brief strong winds on 
Thu night with seas building to about 6 ft.  

Gulf of Panama: Fresh n winds expected tonight and Wed with 
guidance suggesting very brief strong winds on Wed night. Then 
fresh nocturnal northerly flow on Thu night.   

Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 4 ft, are 
occurring elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A ridge extends se from a 1029 mb high pressure at 31N141W to 
near 20N108W. Large NW swell with combined seas to 15 ft are 
spreading se across the discussion waters w of 96W. A surface 
trough is expected to develop s of the ridge on Wed roughly from 
13N140W to 16N128W, and extend from 10N140W to 15N135W to 
15N126W on Wed night. Strong ne to e winds will develop just n 
of the trough, and gradually spread northward out to about 480 
nm on Wed night. A surface low is expected to develop along the 
trough near 12N137W on Thu, with the gradient supporting strong 
to near gale force winds across the waters from 12N to 23N 
between 123W and 140W, with seas building to about 18 ft on Fri. 
 
$$
Nelson