000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231607
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jan 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

High pressure building in behind a cold front that exited the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning tightened the pressure 
gradient in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and currently support gale 
force winds. The high will slide quickly eastward this afternoon 
while it weakens, which will act to diminish winds below gale 
force this afternoon. Please see the latest East Pacific high 
seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for 
further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 04N91W to 04N109W to 05N140W. No 
significant convection observed.

...DISCUSSION...   

...A series of strong cold fronts has generated a large area of 
unusually large swell. This swell will continue to affect most 
of the forecast area through Wednesday...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong southwest winds are observed in the northern 
Gulf of California ahead of a cold front that has started to 
enter the Baja California Norte. North to northwest winds of 
similar magnitude are also within 20 nm off Santiago in Baja 
California Sur. Winds in these two regions of the Gulf of 
California will diminish this afternoon, but will pulse again 
tonight as the front continue to move SE while weakening. Large 
long period NW swell of 12 to 23 ft generated by gale winds 
north of the area and behind the front will continue to sweep 
southeastward into the forecast zones west of 105W through 
Wednesday. NW winds north of 27N will become fresh to strong 
this afternoon then subside early Tuesday morning. A strong 
pressure gradient between high pressure along Mexico and a 
trough of low pressure off the Jalisco Mexico coast is 
supporting an area of fresh to strong northwest winds from 18N 
to 20N between 105W and 107W. These winds will diminish early 
this afternoon and only long period swell will dominate the 023 
offshore zone. Strong winds sustaining the swell event will 
diminish by Tuesday as the high weakens, with seas decreasing 
below 12 ft in the offshore Mexico waters Wednesday night. 
However, seas of 8 to 10 ft will persist west of 96W through the 
end of the week.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds will prevail across most of the region 
through Tuesday. Seas will generally range between 3 and 5 ft 
until Tuesday, then build about a foot in response to arriving 
NW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front extending from 31N116W to 22N126W to 18N140W and 
strong high pressure behind it support fresh to near gale force 
winds N of 27N between 120W and 138W with seas from 14 to 23 ft 
generated in part to large NW swell. Large NW swell continues to 
spread across the remainder waters with seas to 18 ft north of 
27N, 12 ft N of 10N and 8 ft seas reaching the equator this 
afternoon.

$$
Ramos