000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230331
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jan 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

High pressure building behind a vigorous low pressure system 
moving across the Gulf of Mexico will tighten the gradient in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec overnight and allow winds to increase to 
gale force starting at 0900 UTC. The high will slide quickly 
eastward, and winds will diminish below gale force 12 hours 
later around 2100 UTC. Please see the latest East Pacific high 
seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for 
further details. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ extends from 04N107W to 05N126W to 07N140W. No 
significant convection.

...DISCUSSION...   

...A series of strong cold fronts and a prolonged period of 
unusually large swell will continue to affect most of the 
forecast area through Monday...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate southwest winds are ahead of a cold front west of Baja 
California. Large long period swell of 14 to 23 ft generated by 
the front will sweep east-southeastward overnight. The pressure 
gradient will tighten off the Jalisco Mexico coast overnight as 
the front approaches, briefly supporting fresh to strong winds 
within 120 nm of the coast. Ridging behind the front will allow 
fresh to locally strong north winds to spread into the southern 
Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes Monday. Strong winds 
sustaining the swell event will diminish by Tuesday as the high 
weakens, with seas decreasing below 12 ft in the offshore Mexico 
waters Wednesday night. However, seas of 8 to 10 ft will persist 
west of 100W through the end of the week.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds will prevail across most of the region 
through Tuesday. Seas will generally range between 3 and 5 ft 
until Tuesday, then build about a foot in response to building 
NW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Sscatterometer data shows strong NW winds occurring west of the 
front. Altimeter data shows large NW swell spreading across the 
waters with seas greater than 12 ft north of 20N and reaching as 
high as 26 ft near 30N. Large long period swell will continue to 
sweep southeastward with 8 ft seas reaching the equator Monday. 
Global models continue to show gale force winds associated with 
the cold front remaining just north of 30N overnight. Forecast 
models are in general agreement in developing low pressure over 
the western waters near 12N134W on Thursday and Thursday night. 
A large area of fresh to strong winds will be possible in the 
vicinity of the low from 12N to 26N W of 120W by Friday morning.

$$
Mundell