000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211003
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
723 UTC Sat Jan 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 07N79W to 10N85W to 
08N89W. The ITCZ continues from 08N89W to 06N95W to 07N102W to
05N113W to 07N122W to 01N140W. No significant convection.

...DISCUSSION...   

...A series of strong cold fronts and a prolonged period of 
unusually large swell will maintain very high seas over much of
the area north of the equator and west of 100W through Tuesday...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A small area of strong southwest winds is focused north of 30N 
in the Gulf of California ahead of a cold front arriving over 
Baja California Norte. Large northwest swell of 12 to 18 ft are 
entering the Pacific offshore waters of Baja California Norte. 
Strong winds and seas building to 12 to 21 ft will affect the 
waters north of 26N in the wake of the cold frontal passage. This
will be the start of a significant large swell and heavy surf 
event sweeping southeastward into the deep tropics from the 
northern Pacific. Dangerous surf conditions will primarily affect
the coast of Baja California through Sunday. By Sunday morning, 
seas will build to 20 ft off Baja California Norte and Guadelupe 
Island. By Sunday evening, seas to 12 ft will reach Socorro 
Island. Ridging behind the front will allow strong northerly 
winds to spread to the southern Gulf of California and off Cabo 
Corrientes by late Sunday. Another cold front will produce a 
reinforcing round of long period NW swell, which will maintain 
seas in the 12 to 20 foot range Monday through Tuesday. Looking 
ahead, high pressure building in behind a strong cold front in 
the Gulf of Mexico will increase the pressure gradient across the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec and cause gap winds to increase to gale 
force over the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Monday morning.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle southeast to east winds will generally prevail 
across the region through Tuesday. Seas will be generally 3-5 ft
in the forecast waters. Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse
over the Gulf of Papagayo Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Satellite-derived wind data show moderate to fresh trade winds 
from the ITCZ to 20N W of 115W. A ridge will build eastward along
25N Sunday night through Tuesday, allowing trade winds to 
increase to fresh to strong speeds from 08N to 23N west of 120W. 
Altimeter data shows seas 10 to 18 ft north of 22N and west of 
125W. Winds will increase to near gale force and seas will build 
as high as 25 ft in NW swell Saturday night through Sunday night 
north of 28N and west of 120W. Seas in this area will gradually 
diminish through Wednesday. NW swell will cause seas south of the
equator west of 100W to build to above 8 ft beginning on Monday.
The area of seas 8 ft or greater will continue to spread SE into
the waters of the SE Pacific east of 115W and reach 20S on 
Wednesday.

$$
cam