000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202125
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Jan 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is not identifiable at this time. The ITCZ 
extends from 05N92W to 05N112W to 07N121W to 04N129W to 04N140W. 
No significant convection.

...DISCUSSION...   

...A series of strong cold fronts and a prolonged period of 
unusually large swell will affect much of the area during the
coming week...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A small area of strong southwest gap winds may be occuring north 
of 29N in the Gulf of California. Large northwest swell of 10 to 
15 ft are moving into offshore waters off Baja California Norte 
this afternoon. Westerly winds will increase and seas will build 
over the area north of 27N ahead of a cold front that will push 
into Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California 
tonight. This will be the start of a significant large swell and 
heavy surf event sweeping into the tropics from the northern 
Pacific. Dangerous surf conditions will primarily affect the 
coast of Baja California through early Sunday. By late Sunday, 
seas will build to 20 ft off Baja California Norte and Guadelupe 
Island, with seas to 12 ft reaching Socorro Island. Ridging 
behind the front will allow strong northerly winds spreading to 
southern Gulf of California and off Cabo Corrientes by early 
Sunday. Looking ahead, high pressure building behind a strong 
cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will allow gap winds to gale 
force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Monday morning.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle southeast to east winds will generally prevail 
across the region through Tuesday. Seas will be generally 3-5 ft
in the forecast waters.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak ridge extends eastward along 24N to the southern tip of 
the Baja peninsula, supporting mostly moderate trade winds from
10N to 20N. This ridge will build through late Sunday, allowing 
strong trade winds over much of the area north of 10N. Altimeter 
data shows seas 10 to 15 ft north of 24N. Winds will increase to 
near gale force north of 28N through Saturday night between 120W 
and 130W, along with seas to as high as 24 ft, before gradually 
diminishing into early next week. Seas of 8 ft or greater due 
primarily to northerly seas will build southward into the deep 
tropics through early next week.

$$
Mundell