000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201546
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1546 UTC Fri Jan 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough is not identifiable at this time. The intertropical
convergence zone extends from 04N91W to 05N101W to 04N113W to 
07N135W to 07N140W. No significant convection.

...DISCUSSION...   

...A series of strong cold fronts and a prolonged period of 
unusually large swell will affect much of the area during the
coming week...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough, the remnants of a dissipating cold front is
crossing the Baja California peninsula north of 24N, and the
northern Gulf of California. A small area of strong west gap
winds may be occuring over the northern Gulf of California in the
wake of this trough near 30N115W. Northwest swell of 8 to 12 ft 
are moving into offshore waters off Baja California Norte this
morning behind the front. Westerly winds will increase and seas
will build across the area north of 27N ahead of a second front 
that will follow into Baja California Norte and the northern 
Gulf of California tonight. This will be the start of a
significant swell event emerging from the northern Pacific posing
dangerous surf conditions, impacting primarly the coast of Baja 
California through early Sunday. By late Sunday, seas will build
to 20 ft off Baja Califoria Norte and Guadelupe Island, with seas
to 12 ft reaching Socorro Island. Ridging behind the front will
allow strong northerly winds spreading to southern Gulf of
California and off Cabo Corrientes by early Sunday. Looking
ahead, high pressure building behind a strong cold front in the
Gulf of Mexico will allow gap winds to gale force into the Gulf
of Tehuantepec by early Monday morning.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle southeast to east winds will generally prevail 
across the region through Tuesday. Seas will be generally 3-5 ft
in the forecast waters.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak ridge extends eastward along 24N to the southern tip of 
the Baja peninsula, supporting mostly moderate trade winds from
10N to 20N. This ridge will build through late Sunday, allowing
strong trade winds over much of the region north of 10N. Seas are
already measured by altimeter satellites to be 10 to 15 ft north
of 24N. Winds will increase to near gale force north of 28N
through Saturday night between 120W and 130W, along with seas to
as high as 24 ft, before gradually diminishing into early next
week. Seas of 8 ft or greater due primarily to northerly seas 
will build southward into the deep tropics through early next 
week.

$$
CHRISTENSEN