000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191041 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jan 19 2017 corrected satellite imagery time Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A discontinuous ITCZ axis extends from 04N85W to weak low pres near 04N97W 1012 mb to 03N104W to 05N112W to 08N120W. It resumes at 08N127W to 06N136W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 60 nm south of the axis between 126W-128W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the axis between 129W-131W. ...DISCUSSION... ...A Series of Strong Cold fronts wil to affect much of the area... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An upper trough that stretches from north-central Mexico southwestward to just south of the southern Baja California peninsula. A very well pronounced jet stream branch rounds the base of the trough, and is accompanied by strong southwest winds. Satellite water vapor imagery shows a persistent large moisture plume of mid and upper level clouds continuing to advect northeastward towards much of central Mexico with the strong jet stream winds. Available jet stream energy is combining with the deep moisture to produce scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes. A stronger upper trough is noted on water vapor quickly sweeping southeastward from central California south- southwest to over the far northeast waters of the discussion area. This trough will overtake the first trough tonight into early Friday, and move eastward over northern and central Mexico through Saturday. Precipitable water and precipitation potential model guidance suggest that the moisture values will decrease Friday through Saturday along and offshore the central Mexican coast, however enough shallow moisture remaining will allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms exist over the these waters. The Ascat pass from Wednesday afternoon highlighted gentle to moderate northwest to north winds west of Baja California and in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle northerly winds prevail south and east of Acapulco. Seas in the area are 5-6 ft west of Baja California, 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. The aforementioned strong upper trough supports a cold front that is fast approaching the far northwest portion of these waters. A pre-frontal trough is ahead of this front. Rain and scattered showers are noted just offshore far northern Baja California moving eastward. Global models suggest that the cold front will move into the waters off Baja California Norte today, then become diffuse ahead of a much stronger cold front that will quickly move across the waters west of Baja California and the Gulf of California Friday through Saturday evening. This front will be accompanied by fresh to strong winds and large northwest swell. This swell event is expected to build seas to 12-19 ft off Baja California Norte Saturday, with seas in the range of 8-13 ft are expected off Baja California Sur. Wave model guidance indicates max seas may be around 21 ft in the waters north of 29N on Saturday. These marine conditions are likely to bring hazardous marine conditions to mariners navigating the near shore and offshore waters, and very dangerous surf conditions along the coast. Southwest winds ahead of the second cold front are expected to increase to near gale force over much of the northern Gulf of California late Friday night, with seas building to 8-9 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The strong northeast winds through the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish later this morning. Winds through the gulf will become moderate in speed early this afternoon, then become light to gentle variable winds by this evening before pulsing as fresh northeast winds late tonight and diminishing to moderate winds Friday morning, and becoming light to gentle winds clocking around from west-northwest to Friday afternoon to northwest Friday night and Saturday. light to gentle easterly winds will prevail elsewhere through Saturday. Seas will be generally 3-5 ft in the forecast waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1024 mb high is now centered just west of the area at 26N142W. It extends a ridge eastward to the Baja peninsula. The gradient between the ridge and low pressure associated with the ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh to strong northeast trade winds from 08N to 11N west of 137W, with resultant seas in the 9-10 ft range. Fresh trades are elsewhere from 06N to 19N west of 137W, and from 10N to 14N between 122W-137W. Seas within these areas of fresh trades are in the 8-10 ft range due to mixed NE and NW swell. The ridge will be nudged southward over the next couple of days as the aforementioned cold fronts sweep across the waters north of 25N. This will allow the trades to decrease in coverage and shift westward through Saturday. NW swell with seas to 8-16 ft associated with a cold front moving eastward across the waters north of 25N today will be followed by a second front expected to sweep southeastward across the northern waters tonight through Friday night. Wave model guidance shows large northwest swell will propagate southeastward into the waters north of 20N behind the second front, with seas building quite large to 15-21 ft in the far northern waters east of 130W late Friday into Saturday. Yet another cold front will move into the far northwest waters on Saturday preceded and followed by strong winds. This front will lead another set of large NW swell through the northwest waters, with latest wave model guidance indicating seas in the 14-21 ft range. $$ AGUIRRE