000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162125 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2029 UTC Mon Jan 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 06N77W to low pressure near 01N82W to 03N90W to 03N96W. The ITCZ extends from 03N96W to 02N105W to 07N118W to 07.5N131W. It resumes at 08N136W to beyond 08N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure area centered near 31N135W to the south of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the forecast waters off the coast of Baja California and over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters off southwest Mexico and the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range off the coast of Baja California, 2 ft or less over the Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Looking ahead, global models have been fairly consistent showing a weak cold front moving into the waters off Baja California Norte by Thursday then become diffuse ahead of a stronger cold front moving across Baja California and the Gulf of California Friday and Saturday. The second front will be accompanied by fresh to strong winds and seas of 12 to 13 ft off Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse the next couple of nights over the Gulf of Papagayo the next couple of days. Winds will peak near 25 kt during the late night and early morning hours. Elsewhere light to gentle northeast to east winds will persist north of about 07N, and light to gentle south to southeast winds south of 07N. Seas are around the 3-4 ft range...except slightly higher seas north of 07N with little change expected through mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1027 mb centered north of the area near 31N135W extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh to strong trade winds from 12N to 14N west of 132W, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft north of 07N and west of 120W. The swell will subside below 8 ft from north to south through mid week north of 20N, while seas related to the trade wind flow will persist from 07N to 20N. Looking ahead, the areal coverage of the fresh to strong trade winds and associated seas will decrease after mid week as the high pressure north of the area weakens ahead of an advancing cold front. Northwest swell of 8 to 12 ft will accompany the front as it moves eastward across the waters north of 25N Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a second front moving south of 30N to the east of 130W by Thursday and Friday. $$ AL