000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151520 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1520 UTC Sun Jan 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 04N77W to low pressure near 02N80W 1010 mb to 01N83W to 04N90W to 04N105W. The intertropical convergence zone extends from 04N105W to a surface trough near 07N125W, then continues to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 110W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gale force gap winds are diminishing this morning as high pressure north of the area weakens ahead of low pressure moving across northern Mexico. Strong gap will persist into the afternoon, then diminish further overnight into Monday morning. 8 to 10 ft seas downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside accordingly to below 8 ft by this afternoon. Light to gentle breezes will follow over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through mid week. Elsewhere, a cold front that has been moving southward along the Baja California peninsula and Gulf of California has shifted south of Los Cabos. The front is weakening, and will stall and dissipate tomorrow from Cabo Corrientes to Socorro Island. Moderate to fresh winds following the front will diminish through today. Northwest swell off Baja California Norte has subsided to below 8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail through mid week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move eastward across Baja California and the Gulf of California by Thursday accompanied by strong winds and building seas north of 25N. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fairly strong trade winds over the southwest Caribbean along with local drainage effects are allowing fresh to strong gap winds through the Gulf of Papagayo and farther north off the coast of Nicaragua near Puerto Sandino. These winds will diminish this afternoon, but will repeat tonight and to a lesser extent each night thereafter through mid week. Seas are reaching 8 ft downstream to 90W, but will subside as the winds diminish this afternoon, and stay just below 8 ft through mid week. Elsewhere, there are lingering strong winds off the Azuero peninsula of Panama, but gap winds in the Gulf of Panama are diminishing. Persistent low pressure and troughing will continue to support occasional showers and thunderstorms off Colombia for the next couple. light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas persist elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Upper jet dynamics continue to support a surface trough extending from 11N123W to 07N128W, along with related showers and thunderstorms from 10N to 15N between 110W and 130W. The gradient between the trough and 1029 mb high pressure centered near 31N138W is allowing fresh to strong trade winds from 10N to 15N west of the trough to 130W. A large area of moderate to fresh trades is noted elsewhere between the ITCZ and 20N. The combination of the seas related to trade winds and a component of longer period northwest swell is supporting combined seas of 8 to 12 ft in the area of trade winds. Ship observations and altimeter data confirm seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 20N and west of 130W due mainly to the northwest swell. Winds and seas will diminish slightly through mid week as the ridge weakens a little and shifts southward to along 25N ahead of a progressive cold front moving eastward across the eastern Pacific from middle to the latter parts of the week. $$ CHRISTENSEN