000 AXPZ20 KNHC 142159 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2159 UTC Sat Jan 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure centered north of the area over the Gulf of Mexico will support gale force winds once again startion at 15/0000 UTC. These winds will diminish below gale within the next 24 hours. The high pressure will weaken early in the week as a weak cold front clips the northwest Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday. This will allow only fresh gap winds Sunday night into Monday morning, with minimal gap winds thereafter through mid week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Surface trough from 04N78W to 1009 mb surface low near 01N82W to 03N90W. ITCZ extends from 03N90W to 08N116W. Another surface trough extends from 12N119W to 07N121W. ITCZ resumes near 09N123W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 96W-101W and north of 04N between 112W-130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section for information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. A cold front extends from 26N112W to 23N114W to 20N120W. This front will continue to move southeastward into Baja California Sur and the central Gulf of California. Seas to 8 ft will follow the front off Baja California Norte. The front will gradually stall and dissipate from Cabo Corrientes to Socorro Island by early Monday. Winds will diminish behind the front within the next 24 hours. Meanwhile 8 to 9 ft northwest swell will continue to propagate through the area about 120 nm off Baja California Norte through Tuesday, then diminish below 8 ft through mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo and along the south coast of Nicaragua, fresh to strong northeast flow will continue to pulse through early next week. Seas will build to 9 ft during the strongest winds. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse to strong tonight before diminishing to fresh again Sunday afternoon. Seas will be in the range of 5-7 ft, and subside to 4-5 ft on Monday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure is building south-southeast in the wake of the cold front described above. The combination of the high pressure and lower pressures to its south will lead to an increase of trade winds in the deep tropics mainly west 120W from tonight through early next week. Seas are currently ranging between 8-10 ft in this area, and will build to 10 to 12 ft by late Sunday through early Monday as the trades combine with a northwest swell. Converging trade winds in the lower levels along with jet dynamics aloft at the base of an upper-level trough are enhancing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along the ITCZ and surface trough between 112W and 130W. Looking ahead, global models suggest that a large and deep low pressure system will pass well to the north of the discussion area by the middle portion of next week. A northwest swell generated by this system is expected to arrive in the far northwest portion of the area by early Wednesday, with strong southwest winds prevailing in advance of a cold front that may brush the far northern waters that evening. $$ NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER