000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141547 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1515 UTC Sat Jan 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong high pressure to the north of the area over Gulf of Mexico is supporting gap winds to gale force this morning, along with local overnight draingage effects. The gap winds will diminish below gale by late morning, then increase again to minimal gale force tonight into early Sunday. The high pressure will weaken early in the week as a weak cold front clips the northwest Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday. This will allow only fresh gap winds Sunday night into Monday morning, with minimal gap winds thereafter through mid week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 04N76W to low pressure near 02N82W 1009 MB to 02N88W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 02N88W to 02N107W to 07N116W, resuming at 09N123W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 115W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section for information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning. A weakening cold front continues to move southeastward into Baja California Sur and the central Gulf of California. Seas to 8 ft follow the front off Baja California Norte. The front will gradually stall and dissipate from roughly Cabo Corrientes to Socorro Island by early Monday. Fresh northerly winds will follow the front along the coast of Baja California and the Gulf of California today, then will diminish into Sunday as ridging builds over the area in the wake of the front. Meanwhile 8 to 9 ft northwest swell will continue to propagate through the area about 120 nm off Baja California Norte through Tuesday, then diminish below 8 ft through mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo and along the south coast of Nicaragua, fresh to strong northeast flow will continue to pulse through early next week. Seas will build to 8 to 10 ft during the strongest winds. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse to strong this evening through late tonight before diminishing to fresh again Sunday afternoon and to moderate to fresh Sunday evening and Monday. Seas will be in the range of 5-7 ft, and subside to 4-5 ft on Monday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure is building south-southeast in the wake of the above mentioned cold front. The combination of the high pressure and lower pressures to its south will lead to an increase of trade winds in the deep tropics west of about 120W tonight through early next week. Seas currently 8-10 ft in the trade wind area will build to 10 to 12 ft late Sunday, and into early on Monday in a combination of northeast trade winds and northwest swell moving into the area. Converging trade winds in the lower levels along with jet dynamics aloft at the base of an upper trough are enhancing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along the ITCZ between 115W and 125W. Looking ahead, global models suggest that a large and very deep low pressure system will pass well to the north of the discussion area by the middle portion of next week. Northwest swell generated by this system is expected to arrive in the far northwest portion of the discussion area by early on Wednesday, with strong southwest winds just northwest of the area in advance of a cold front that may brush the far northern waters on Wednesday. $$ CHRISTENSEN