000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140107
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 UTC Sat Jan 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong high pressure building 
north of the region over the Gulf of Mexico is allowing gap 
winds to increase through the Gulf of Tehuantepec, reaching gale 
force with the assistance of local drainage effects. The gales 
will diminish by Saturday afternoon, but will return Saturday 
night into early Sunday. Winds will then pulse to fresh to strong
through Sunday night.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The trough axis extends from 06N77W to low pressure near 02N82W
to 03N86W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from
03N100W to 08N117W to low pressure near 06N126W to 04N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 210 to 300 nm north of
the axis between 110W and 130W, where converging trade winds in 
the lower levels along with jet dynamics aloft at the base of an 
upper trough are enhancing convection.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the special features section for information on the
Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning.

Elsewhere, a cold front from southwest Arizona across the far
northern Gulf of California to 20N126W will move across Baja 
California Norte and the northern portion of the Gulf of 
California through early Saturday, then weaken as it moves across
Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California through 
early Sunday. The front will stall and dissipate through early 
next week from Cabo Corrientes to Socorro Island. Fresh northerly
winds will follow the front, with possible fresh to locally 
strong west to southwest gap winds across the Baja California 
peninsula into the Gulf of California tonight. Seas are around 5 
to 7 ft off Baja California, and will build slightly with the 
increased winds behind the front and with a modest component of 
northerly swell, reaching 8 ft off Baja California Norte tonight 
through late Saturday. Another group of northerly swell will move
into the waters off Baja California Norte Monday, with seas 
reaching near 9 ft before subsiding again to 4 to 6 ft by mid 
week.

Looking ahead, global models are indicating that a stronger cold
front will move across the region late in the week bringing 
strong northwest to west winds and building seas.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

In the Gulf of Papagayo and along the south coast of Nicaragua, 
fresh to strong northeast flow will continue to pulse through 
early next week, approaching near gale tonight. Seas will build 
to 8 to 10 ft during the strongest winds.

In the Gulf of Panama, fresh to strong northerly winds will 
pulse through Sunday morning, then will be moderate to fresh 
through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is building north of the area behind a cold front
moving east of the region. This will enhance trade wind flow in
the deep tropics west of 120W. Seas currently 8 to 10 ft in the 
trade wind area will build to 10 to 12 ft by early next week in a
combination of northeast trade winds and northwest swell moving 
into the area. Converging trade winds in the lower levels along 
with jet dynamics aloft at the base of an upper trough are 
enhancing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along the 
ITCZ between 110W and 131W. 

$$
LEWITSKY