000 AXPZ20 KNHC 132150 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2150 UTC Fri Jan 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong high pressure building north of the region over the Gulf of Mexico will allow gap winds to increase through the Gulf of Tehuantepec, reaching gale force tonight with the assistance of local drainage effects. The gales will diminish by Saturday afternoon, but will return Saturday night into early Sunday. Winds will then pulse to fresh to strong through Sunday night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Trough axis extends from 06N76W to low pressure near 02N81W to 03N85W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 03N97W to 02N106W to 08N117W to low pressure near 06N126W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of axis between 110W to 131W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section for information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning. Elsewhere, a cold front from southwest Arizona across the far northern Gulf of California to 23N122W will move across Baja California Norte and the northern portion of the Gulf of California through early Saturday, then weaken as it moves across Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California through early Sunday. The front will stall and dissipate through early next week from Cabo Corrientes to Socorro Island. Fresh northerly winds will follow the front, with possible fresh to locally strong west to southwest gap winds across the Baja California peninsula into the Gulf of California tonight. Seas are around 5 to 7 ft off Baja California, and will build slightly with the increased winds behind the front and with a modest component of northerly swell, reaching 8 ft off Baja California Norte tonight through late Saturday. Another group of northerly swell will move into the waters off Baja California Norte Monday, with seas reaching near 9 ft before subsiding again to 4 to 6 ft by mid week. Looking ahead, global models are indicating that a stronger cold front will move across the region late in the week bringing strong northwest to west winds and building seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo and along the coast of Nicaragua, fresh to strong northeast flow will continue to pulse through early next week, approaching near gale tonight. Seas will build to 8 to 10 ft during the strongest winds. In the Gulf of Panama, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse tonight, then will be moderate to fresh through early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is building north of the area behind a cold front moving east of the region. This will enhance trade wind flow in the deep tropics west of 120W. Seas currently 8 to 10 ft in the trade wind area will build to 10 to 12 ft by early next week in a combination of northeast trade winds and northwest swell moving into the area. Converging trade winds in the lower levels along with jet dynamics aloft at the base of an upper trough are enhancing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along the ITCZ between 110W and 131W. $$ LEWITSKY