000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131430 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1242 UTC Fri Jan 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong high pressure building north of the region over the Gulf of Mexico will allow gap winds to increase through the Gulf of Tehuantepec, reaching gale force tonight with the assistance of local drainage effects. The gales will diminish through early Saturday, but strong winds will persist into early next week. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough is not presently identifiable. A trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W to 1011 mb low pressure near 03N81W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 02N100W to 08N115W to 1010 mb low pressure near 07N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm either side of the axis between 120W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section for information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning. Elsewhere, a cold front from near San Diego California to 26N123W will move across Baja California Norte and the northern portion of the Gulf of California through early Saturday, then weaken as it moves across Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California. The front will stall and dissipate through early next week from Cabo Corrientes to Socorro Island. Fresh northerly winds will follow the front, with possible fresh to locally strong west to southwest gap winds across the Baja California peninsula into the Gulf of California tonight. Seas are around 5 to 7 ft off Baja California, and will build slightly with the increased winds behind the front and with a modest component of northerly swell, reaching 8 ft off Baja California Norte today through late Saturday. Another group of northerly swell will move into the waters off Baja California Norte Monday, with seas reaching near 9 ft before subsiding again to 4 to 6 ft by mid week. Looking ahead, global models are indicating a stronger cold front will move across the region late in the week bringing strong northwest to west winds and building seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo and along the coast of Nicaragua, fresh to strong northeast flow will continue to pulse through early next week, approaching near gale force by daybreak this morning then diminishing to strong this afternoon. Model wind guidance suggests that these winds then increase back to near gale force again tonight and into Saturday morning before diminishing back to strong through Monday. Seas will build to 8 to 10 ft during the strongest winds. Winds will also pulse to fresh to strong across the offshore Gulf of Fonseca waters into early this afternoon, then diminishing thereafter. In the Gulf of Panama fresh to strong northerly winds will diminish to moderate to fresh later this morning, and remain at this category through Monday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is building north of the area behind a cold front moving east of the region. This will enhance trade wind flow in the deep tropics west of 120W. Seas are currently 8 to 10 ft in the trade wind area will build to 10 to 12 ft by early next week in a combination of northeast trade winds and northwest swell moving into the area. Converging trade winds in the lower levels along with jet dynamics aloft at the base of an upper trough are enhancing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along the ITCZ between 120W and 125W. $$ CHRISTENSEN