000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122147
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2147 UTC Thu Jan 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 05N87W to 04N100W. The 
intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 04N100W to 
05N111W to 04N123W to 07N136W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 05N to 10N between 103W and 120W, and also 
within 210 nm north of the axis west of 120W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong winds have diminished
but will return late tonight as the pressure gradient tightens 
in response to reinforcing high pressure building southward 
toward the Gulf of Mexico. This will cause winds to increase to 
fresh to near gale force tonight through early Sunday. Seas will 
build to between 8 and 11 ft during the period of strongest winds
on Saturday morning. Winds will decrease to 20 kt or less during
the first half of next week as the high pressure ridge shifts 
eastward and return flow sets up over the Gulf of Mexico.

Elsewhere, moderate northwest to north winds prevail over the 
waters adjacent to the Baja California peninsula. Seas are in 
the 4 to 6 ft range, light to gentle winds prevail off the coast 
of southwest Mexico with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. Surface 
troughing near the Baja peninsula is maintaining light to gentle 
winds and seas 2 ft or less over the Gulf of California. Winds 
over the northern gulf of California will become north to 
northwest at moderate speeds Friday night through early Saturday.
Northwest swell associated with a weakening surface trough 
tracking across the northern waters have begun to arrive in the 
offshore waters of Baja California Norte zone PMZ011. Seas will 
run 7 to 9 ft in this zone today, then subside on Friday. The 
next round of NW swell is expected to arrive on Monday.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

In the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to strong northeast flow will 
continue to pulse through early next week. The strongest winds 
and highest seas of 8 to 9 ft are expected during the late night
and early morning hours.

In the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula, fresh north 
winds will continue to pulse during the next several days and 
peak during the overnight and early morning hours.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening surface trough passes through the northern waters 
from 30N123W to 28N130W. A ridge of high pressure remains in 
place south of the trough from 30N140W to 23N128W to 24N113W.
The pressure gradient between the ridge of high pressure and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate to fresh trades west of 120W and north of the ITCZ to 
near 20N. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail over 
waters north of 20N in the vicinity of the ridge axis. Northwest 
swell are propagating through the waters north of 25N. Satellite-
derived data indicate combined seas of 8 to 11 ft in this area. 
The swell will slowly subside and seas will fall below 8 ft by 
late Friday. High pressure building in behind the surface trough 
will strengthen the trades Saturday through Tuesday.

$$
LEWITSKY