000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121554
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1337 UTC Thu Jan 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 06N86W to 03N92W to 04N97W. The 
ITCZ continues from 04N97W to 05N120W to 07N134W to beyond 
05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 103W and 122W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present 
from 05N to 10N west of 128W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong winds are 
diminishing. The pressure gradient will tighten across the area 
tonight in response to reinforcing high pressure building 
southward toward the Gulf of Mexico. This will cause winds to 
increase to fresh to near gale force tonight through early 
Sunday. Seas will build to between 8 and 11 ft during the period 
of strongest winds on Saturday morning. Winds will decrease to 20
kt or less during the first half of next week as the high 
pressure ridge shifts eastward and return flow sets up over the 
Gulf of Mexico.

Elsewhere, moderate NW to N winds prevail over the waters 
adjacent to the Baja California peninsula. Seas are in the 4 to 6
ft range, light to gentle winds prevail off the coast of 
southwest Mexico with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. Surface 
troughing near the Baja peninsula is maintaining light to gentle 
winds and seas 2 ft or less over the Gulf of California. Winds 
over the northern gulf of California will become north to 
northwest at moderate speeds Friday night through early Saturday.
Northwest swell associated with a weakening surface trough 
tracking across the northern waters have begun to arrive in the 
offshore waters of Baja California Norte zone PMZ011. Seas will 
run 7 to 9 ft in this zone today, then subside on Friday. The 
next round of NW swell is expected to arrive on Monday.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

In the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to strong northeast flow will 
continue to pulse through early next week. The strongest winds 
and highest seas of 8 to 9 ft are expected during the late night
and early morning hours.

In the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula, fresh to 
strong north winds will diminish below advisory criteria today. 
Winds will pulse to fresh speeds during the next several days and
peak during the overnight and early morning hours.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weakening surface trough passes through the northern waters 
from 30N129W to 29N131W. A ridge of high pressure remains in 
place south of the trough from 32N139W to 26N135W to 24N123W to 
26N114W. The pressure gradient between the ridge of high pressure
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate to fresh trades west of 120W and north of the ITCZ to 
near 20N. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail over 
waters north of 20N in the vicinity of the ridge axis. Northwest 
swell are propagating through the waters north of 25N. Satellite-
derived wind data indicate combined seas of 8 to 11 ft in this 
area. The swell will slowly subside and seas will fall below 8 ft
by late Friday. High pressure building in behind the surface 
trough will strengthen the trades Saturday through Tuesday.

$$
cam