000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120903
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
521 UTC Thu Jan 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough axis extends from 06N78W to 04N95W. The ITCZ extends 
from 04N95W to 07N104W to 05N117W to 08N126W, then resumes from 
07N133W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 109W and 120W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N
to 07N west of 128W.  

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong winds over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec will diminish today. The pressure gradient will 
tighten across the area tonight which will increase winds to 
fresh to near gale force tonight through early Sunday. Winds 
will then diminish as the pressure gradient weakens. Seas will 
build to 8 to 11 ft during the period of strongest winds.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail over the waters 
offshore the Baja California peninsula with seas in the 4 to 6 
ft range, light to gentle winds prevail off the coast of 
southwest Mexico with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range, and light 
winds prevail over the Gulf of California with seas 2 ft or less.
Winds in the northern gulf of California will become north to
northwest while increasing to fresh Friday night into early 
Saturday. Seas will build to 4 to 6 ft into Saturday afternoon 
before subsiding. Northwest swell associated with a weakening 
cold front tracking across the northern waters will reach the 
offshore waters of Baja California Norte this morning. Seas in 
this area will build to 7 to 9 ft, then subside by the weekend.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

In the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to strong northeast to east flow
will continue to pulse through early next week with the strongest
winds expected during the late night and early morning hours.
Seas will build to 8 to 9 ft during the morning hours.

In the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula, fresh to
strong northerly winds will diminish below advisory criteria 
today. Winds will pulse the next several days, peaking during 
the overnight and early morning hours.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is propagating through the northern waters with a
ridge of high pressure south of the front. The pressure gradient
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trades west
of 120W and north of the ITCZ to near 15N. Gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic winds prevail over waters north of 20N. Northwest 
swell is propagating across the northern waters with combined 
seas of 8 to 11 ft. The swell will slowly subside over the next 
couple of days, falling below 8 ft late Friday. High pressure 
building behind the front will strengthen the trades this 
weekend.

$$
AL