000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120059 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jan 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from low pressure near 04N80W to 06N87W to 04N95W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 04N95W to 04N110W to 07N124W, then resumes from 07N131W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 05N between 108W and 112W, and also from 07N to 10N between 124W and 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, nocturnal northerly flow will pulse to fresh to strong building seas to 8 ft through early Thursday. The pressure gradient will tighten across the area Thursday night with fresh to near gale force northerly flow expected Thursday night through early Sunday. Winds will diminish thereafter as the gradient slackens. Seas will build to 8 to 11 ft during the strongest winds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail over the waters offshore the Baja California peninsula with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range, light to gentle winds prevail off the coast of southwest Mexico with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range, and light winds prevail over the Gulf of California with seas 2 ft or less. Winds in the northern gulf of California will become north to northwest while increasing to fresh Friday night into early Saturday as the pressure gradient temporarily tigthens. Seas will build to 4 to 6 ft into Saturday afternoon before subsiding. Northwest swell associated with a weakening cold front tracking across the northern waters will reach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte tonight. Seas in this area will build to 7 to 9 ft, then subside by the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... In the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to strong northeast to east flow will continue to pulse through early next week with the strongest winds expected during the late night and early morning hours. Seas will build to 8 to 9 ft during the morning hours. In the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula, northerly fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse through early Thursday as strong winds funnel into the area from the southwest Caribbean, with winds pulsing to fresh thereafter, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. The combined swell generated from the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind events has generated a large area of seas 8 ft or greater. The swell has propagated away from these areas and seas 8 ft or greater cover much of the area south of 10N between 90W and 120W. Areal coverage of 8 ft or greater seas will decrease through Thursday night, with seas subsiding below 8 ft late Thursday night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak high pressure OF 1022 MB centered near 25N125W prevails over northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to Fresh trades west of 120W and north of the ITCZ to near 15N. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail over waters north of 15N. Northwest swell is propagating into the northern waters with combined seas of 8 to 12 ft as a weak cold front moves eastward across the northern waters through Thursday. High pressure building behind the front will strengthen trades this weekend. $$ LEWITSKY