000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110932 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 456 UTC Wed Jan 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 05N90W. The ITCZ extends from 05N90W to 04N116W to 07N130W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 124W and 128W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Based on recent ASCAT passes, the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning has been discontinued. The combination of veered winds and weakening high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico has decreased winds funneling through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds and seas will fall below advisory criteria on Thursday. Winds will then pulse over the next few days. Wind will peak near 20 kt during the late night and early morning hours. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail over the waters offshore the Baja California peninsula with seas in the 4-6 ft range, light to gentle winds prevail off the coast of southwest Mexico with seas in the 3-5 ft range, and light winds prevail over the Gulf of California with seas 2 ft or less. Northwest swell associated with a weakening cold front tracking across the northern waters will reach offshore waters of Baja California Norte tonight. Seas in this area will build to 7-9 ft, then subside by the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong northeast winds will continue over the Gulf of Papagayo through today. Afterwards, fresh to strong winds will pulse over this area through the end of the week, with the strongest winds expected during overnight and early morning hours. In the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula, 20-25 kt northerly winds will continue through today as strong winds funnel into the area from the southwest Caribbean. Fresh winds will continue Thursday, then diminish by the weekend. The combined swell generated from the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind events has generated a large area of seas 8 ft or greater. The swell has propagated away from these areas and seas 8 ft or greater cover much of the area south of 10N between 90W and 120W. Areal coverage of 8 ft or greater seas will decrease through Thursday night, with seas subsiding below 8 ft late Thursday night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak high pressure OF 1023 MB centered near 27N125W prevails over northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to Fresh trades west of 120W and north of the ITCZ to near 15N. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail over waters north of 15N. Northwest swell propagating into the northwest waters will build to 10-11 ft as a weak cold front moves eastward across the northern waters through Thursday. High pressure building behind the front will strengthen trades this weekend. $$ AL