000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102147 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jan 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure ridging across the western Gulf of Mexico continues to support minimal gale force winds offshore across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas to 14 ft. The ridge will weaken and shift eastward Wednesday, and allow winds to fall below 35 kt overnight. Afterwards, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec for the remainder of the week. Peak winds will be during late night and early morning hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 06N87W to 03N103W. The ITCZ continues from 03N103W to 07N140W. Small areas of scattered moderate convection are from 03N to 05N between 91W and 94W, and from 10N to 12N between 135W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section for more details on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. A weak pressure gradient prevails over much of the remaining forecast region. Gentle to moderate winds with 3-4 ft seas are evident west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail west of central Mexico. Northwest swell associated with a cold front moving across northern waters will reach offshore waters of Baja California Norte Wednesday night. Seas in this area will build to 7-10 ft, then subside by the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong northeast winds will continue over the Gulf of Papagayo through Wednesday. Afterwards, fresh to strong winds will pulse over this area through the end of the week, with the strongest winds expected during overnight and early morning hours. In the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula, 20-25 kt northerly winds will continue through Wednesday as strong winds funnel into the area from the southwest Caribbean. Fresh winds will continue Thursday, then diminish by the weekend. The combined swell generated from the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind events has generated a large area of 8 ft or greater seas, extending from the source regions southward to the equator and westward to 120W. This large area will shift westward and decay Wednesday through Thursday night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak high pressure centered near 29N124W prevails over northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trades west of 110W and north of the ITCZ to near 15N. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail over waters north of 15N. Northwest swell propagating into the northwest waters will build to near 10-11 ft as a cold front moves eastward across the northern waters through Thursday. High pressure building behind the front will strengthen trade winds west of 115W by late Wednesday night, with fresh trades continuing through Saturday. $$ Mundell