000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1344 UTC Tue Jan 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over the western north Atlantic ridges southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a surface trough to the south over the eastern Pacific continues to generate gale force winds offshore across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas to 16 ft. The ridge will weaken and shift slightly to the east over the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. This will loosen the pressure gradient and allow winds to fall below gale force around sunrise tomorrow morning. Afterwards, fresh to strong winds will pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec for the remainder of the week. Winds will peak during the late night and early morning hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N87W to 02N102W to 04N106W. The ITCZ continues from 04N106W to 06N121W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 10N to 13N between 133W and 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section for more details on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. A weak pressure gradient prevails over much of the remaining forecast region. Gentle to moderate winds with seas in the 3 to 4 ft range are evident off the coast of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds and seas in the 3-5 ft range prevail along the southwest coast of Mexico. Northwest swell generated to the north of a cold front currently located just to the NW of the discussion area will begin arriving the waters offshore of Baja California Norte Wednesday night. Seas in this area will build to 7 to 10 ft, then remain in this range through Saturday before beginning to subside. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will continue in the 20-25 kt range today and Wednesday. Fresh to strong NE winds are then expected to pulse over this area through the end of the week, with the strongest winds expected during the overnight and early morning hours. In the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula, northerly winds in the 20 to 25 kt range prevail as strong winds funnel into the area from the southwest Caribbean. Winds are expected to remain fresh to strong through Thursday then diminish. The combined swell generated from the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind events will generate a large area of 8 ft or greater seas that will extend from the Tehuantepec and Papagayo regions southward to near the equator and westward to near 123W by late today. This area will shift westward and decay Wednesday through Thursday night. Some of the swell will help maintain an area of seas generally from 06N to 21N west of 123W on Friday and Saturday. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak high pressure centered near 30N126W prevails over the northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate trades west of 110W and north of the ITCZ to near 15N. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters north of 15N. Northwest swell is propagating through the northwest waters, with seas greater than 8 ft northwest of a line from 30N130W to 28N140W. Seas associated with this swell will build to near 11 ft as a cold front passes over the northern waters Wednesday. High pressure will build in behind the front over the northern waters the second half of the week. This will strengthen the trade winds over the western waters north of the ITCZ by late Wednesday night through the end of the week. $$ cam