000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100908
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
624 UTC Tue Jan 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over the
western north Atlantic extends a ridge southwest to the Gulf of
Mexico. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and low pressure within the monsoon trough continues to support
gale force winds offshore across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with
seas to around 16 ft. The ridge will weaken over the Gulf of
Mexico today. This will help loosen the pressure gradient enough
to diminish winds below gale force tonight. Afterwards, winds will
pulse over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the remainder of the
week. Winds will peak near 20 to 25 kt during the late night and
early morning hours.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 04N96W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N96W to 03N104W TO 08N140W. There is no significant
convection.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the special features section for more details on the
Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event.

A weak pressure gradient prevails over much of the remaining
forecast region. Gentle to moderate winds with seas in the 3 to 4 ft
range prevail off the coast of the Baja California peninsula.
Light to gentle winds with seas in the 3-5 ft range prevail along
the southwest coast of Mexico. Northwest swell will propagate into
the waters offshore of Baja California Norte Wednesday night,
building seas 7 to 10 ft by early Thursday morning through the
end of the week.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Based on the latest ASCAT data, the gale warning has been
discontinued over the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds will continue in the
20-25 kt range today and Wednesday. Winds are then expected to
pulse through the end of the week, with the strongest winds
expected during overnight and early morning hours.

In the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula, northerly
winds in the 20 to 25 kt range prevail as strong winds funnel
into the area from the southwest Caribbean. Winds are expected to
remain fresh to strong through Wednesday then diminish. 

The combined swell generated from the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf
of Tehuantepec gap wind events will generate a large area of 8
ft or greater seas that will extend from the Tehuantepec and
Papagayo regions southward to near the equator and westward to
near 120W by late today.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Weak high pressure prevails over the northern waters. The
pressure gradient between this are of high pressure and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to
moderate trades north of the ITCZ to near 20N. Light to gentle
winds prevail over the waters north of 20N. Northwest swell is
propagating through the northwest waters, with seas greater than 8
ft northwest of a line from 30N132W to 28N140W. Seas associated to
this swell will build to near 11 ft over the northern waters
Wednesday. High pressure will build over the northern waters the
second half of the week. This will strengthen tradewinds over the
western waters north of the ITCZ by late Wednesday night into
Thursday.

The combination of swell generated from the Gulf of Papagayo and
Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind events has generated an east to
northeasterly swell that is propagating from the area. This swell,
with seas greater than 8 ft, will move across the waters roughly
from 05N to 15N through the week. This swell will eventually
merge with fresh northeast-east tradewind swell across the west-
central waters by the end of the week.

$$
AL