000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040917 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jan 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A semi-permanent trough axis extends from 09N74W to 08N87W to 05N99W. The ITCZ axis extends from 06.5N100W to 06N119W to 06.5N132W to 09N136W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between 125W and 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak 1021 mb high pressure is centered west of Baja California Norte near 30N119W, and is helping to produce gentle to moderate northerly winds across the Pacific waters off the coast of Baja California tonight. Seas in the 3-5 ft range prevail over this area. The pressure gradient across the region will tighten slightly today through Thursday morning, which will support a modest strengthening of the northerly winds across the Baja California waters to 15-20 kt. Seas during this time will build to 4-6 ft. Over the Gulf of California, overnight scatterometer data shows gentle northerly winds across the waters north of the Tiburon Basin, and moderate to fresh N-NW winds across the remaining gulf. Seas across the southern gulf will likely build to 4-6 ft by morning. These conditions will generally prevail through Thursday morning before winds diminish modestly through Friday night. Seas may reach 6-7 ft across southern portions of the Gulf by late tonight. The pressure gradient will tighten modestly inside the gulf over the weekend to produce fresh to strong N-NW winds over the weekend, with the potential for seas to build to 6-8 ft across southern portions by late Sunday. Across and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds will continue to pulse each night through morning to fresh to strong through Thursday morning, with more tranquil conditions expected Thursday through Friday night. A very strong cold front will move through the Gulf of Mexico north of the area late Friday night through Saturday night. Winds behind this front will bring strong gale force winds to extend well offshore of Tehuantepec Saturday night into early next week, with the potential for storm force winds. Seas downstream of Tehuantepec will build to 20 ft or above by late Saturday night. Elsewhere between Cabo Corrientes and the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle breezes and seas in the 3-5 ft range, primarily in northwest swell, will prevail over the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Across and offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo, nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh to strong through early afternoon today and then again tonight through Thursday morning. Winds will then diminish to 10-20 kt through Friday night before increasing once again to fresh to strong Saturday night. Looking ahead, strong high pressure behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front will support strong gap winds across all of the typical gap wind areas of Central America Sunday through early next week, including the Gulf of Panama. Global models suggest the potential for gale force winds across the Papagayo region during the peak of this event. This strong gap wind event from Tehuantepec to the Gulf of Panama will generate a very large area of high seas that will eventually extend from Tehuantepec to Papagayo to the Galapagos Islands spreading westward to 110W by early Tuesday. Elsewhere, light to moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the ITCZ region, with seas 6 ft or less through the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak to modest pressure gradient prevails elsewhere over the forecast waters. Fresh E-NE tradewinds prevail south of the high between 110W and 130W, between the ITCZ and about 15N. Seas are generally running 6-8 ft across this zone. Across the far NW waters seas in the 7-9 ft range in N to NW swell just ahead of a stalling cold front nearing 30N140W. This cold front approaching the northwest corner of the discussion area will weaken and slowly stall through tonight and dissipate by Thursday. This front will usher in a fresh pulse of northwest swell with seas building to 11 ft over the far northwest waters by Thursday morning. Deep low pressure moving northwest of the area this weekend will strengthen winds and build seas to near 9 ft over the northwest waters. $$ Stripling