000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040307 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2358 UTC Tue Jan 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 08N78W to 05N84W to 05N93W. The ITCZ axis extends from 05N93W to 07N105W to 06N115W to 06N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 124W and 129W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak 1021 mb high pressure centered west of Baja California Norte near 28N120W is helping produce light to gentle northerly winds across the Pacific waters off the coast of Baja California Norte, and moderate northwest to north winds across the waters off the coast of Baja California Sur. Seas in the 3-5 ft range prevail over this area. The pressure gradient will tighten slightly Wednesday night which will help support moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Baja California waters. Over the Gulf of California, moderate northerly winds will prevail across the southern waters tonight and spread to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, while winds are light and variable across the northern gulf. The pressure gradient will tighten across the central and southern Gulf by early Saturday, with northwest flow increasing to fresh to strong over the weekend. Offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds will continue to pulse to fresh to near gale force through Wednesday night, with more tranquil conditions expected through Friday night. A very strong cold front will move through the Gulf of Mexico north of the area late Friday night through Saturday night. Winds behind this front will bring strong gale force winds well offshore of Tehuantepec Saturday night into early next week, with the potential for minimal storm force winds. Seas will build to at or above 20 ft by late Saturday night. Elsewhere between Cabo Corrientes and the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle breezes and seas in the 3-5 ft range, primarily in northwest swell, will prevail over the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo, nocturnal offshore winds will pulse to fresh to strong through early Wednesday. Winds will then diminish fresh through Friday night before increasing once again to fresh to strong Saturday night. Looking ahead, strong high pressure behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front will support strong gap winds across all of the typical gap wind areas of Central America Sunday through early next week, including the Gulf of Panama. Global models suggest the potential for gale force winds across the Papagayo region during the peak of this event. Elsewhere, light to moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the ITCZ region, with seas 6 ft or less through the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak pressure gradient prevails over the forecast waters with winds below advisory criteria. Seas in the 7-9 ft range prevail over the northwest waters. A cold front approaching the northwest corner of the discussion area will weaken and slowly stall through Wednesday night and dissipate by Thursday. This front will usher in a fresh set of northwest swell with seas building to 11 ft over the far northwest waters by Thursday morning. Deep low pressure moving northwest of the area this weekend will strengthen winds and build seas to near 9 ft over the northwest waters. $$ AL