000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032147
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2027 UTC Tue Jan 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A trough axis extends from 09N78W to 05.5N93W. The ITCZ axis
extends from 05.5N93W to 05.5N121W to 10N130W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 124W and
127W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak 1022 mb high pressure centered just west of Baja
California Norte near 28.5N118.5W is helping produce light to
gentle northerly winds across the Pacific waters off the coast of
Baja California Norte, and moderate northwest to north winds
across the waters off the coast of Baja California Sur. Seas in
the 3-5 ft range prevail over this area. The high pressure will
drift westward through Wednesday night, with the pressure gradient
tightening slightly, supporting moderate to fresh northerly winds
across the Baja California waters as this occurs. Inside the Gulf
of California, moderate northerly winds will prevail across the
southern waters tonight and spread to offshore of Cabo Corrientes,
while winds are light and variable across the northern gulf. The
pressure gradient will tighten across the central and southern
Gulf by early Saturday, with northwest flow increasing to fresh to
strong for the weekend.

Offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds will
continue to pulse to fresh to near gale force through Wednesday
night, with more tranquil conditions expected through Friday
night. A very strong cold front will move through the Gulf of
Mexico north of the area late Friday night through Saturday night.
Winds behind this front will bring strong gale force winds well
offshore of Tehuantepec Saturday night into early next week, with
the potential for minimal storm force winds. Seas will build to at
or above 20 ft by late Saturday night.

Elsewhere between Cabo Corrientes and the Tehuantepec region,
light to gentle breezes and seas in the 3-5 ft range, primarily
in northwest swell, will prevail over the next several days.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo, nocturnal offshore winds will
continue to pulse to fresh to strong through early Wednesday.
Winds will then diminish fresh through Friday night before
increasing once again to fresh to strong Saturday night. Looking
ahead, strong high pressure behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front
will support strong gap winds across all of the typical gap wind
areas of central America Sunday through early next week, including
the Gulf of Panama. Global models suggest the potential for gale
force winds across the Papagayo region during the peak of this
event.

Elsewhere, light to moderate south to southwest winds will
prevail south of the ITCZ region, with seas 6 ft or less through
the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure of 1009 mb is centered near 22.5N138W. Fresh to
strong winds prevail on the eastern side of the low, with seas
in the 7-9 ft range from roughly 20N to 26N between 130W and 138W.
The low is expected to dissipate over the next day.

A cold front approaching the northwest corner of the discussion
area will weaken and slowly stall through Wednesday night and
dissipate by Thursday. This front will usher in a fresh set of
northwest swell with seas building to 11 ft over the far northwest
waters by Thursday morning. Deep low pressure moving northwest of
the area this weekend will strengthen winds and build seas to
near 9 ft over the northwest waters.

$$
AL