000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031523 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1523 UTC Tue Jan 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 09N78W to 05N94W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 05N94W to 04N117W to low pressure near 13.5N132W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 360 nm in the northeast semicircle of the low. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak 1021 mb high pressure centered just west of Baja California Norte near 29N116.5W is producing light to gentle northerly winds across the Pacific waters of Baja north of Punta Eugenia, and moderate northwest to north winds across the waters south of Punta Eugenia. Seas across this area are running 3 to 5 ft with northwest swell per recent ship observations from ship PHEO. The high pressure will drift westward through Wednesday night, with the pressure gradient tightening slightly, supporting moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Baja California waters as this occurs. Inside the Gulf of California, moderate northerly winds prevail across the southern waters tonight and spread to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, while winds are light and variable across the northern gulf. The pressure gradient will briefly tighten tonight especially from 25N to 28N west of 110W, where northwest flow will increase to fresh levels. The pressure gradient will increase across the central and southern Gulf by early Saturday, with northwest flow increasing to fresh to strong for the weekend. Offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds will continue to pulse to fresh to near gale force through Wednesday night, with more tranquil conditions expected through Friday night. A very strong cold front will move through the Gulf of Mexico north of the area late Friday night through Saturday night. This front will induce strong gale force winds well offshore of Tehuantepec Saturday night into early next week, with the potential for minimal storm force winds. Seas will build to at or above 20 ft by late Saturday night. Elsewhere between Cabo Corrientes and the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas primarily in northwest swell will prevail through the next several days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo, nocturnal offshore winds will continue to pulse to fresh to strong through early Wednesday, then to fresh thereafter through Friday night, increasing back to fresh to strong Saturday night. Looking ahead, strong high pressure behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front will induce strong gap winds across all of the typical gap wind areas of central America Sunday through early next week, including the Gulf of Panama. Global models suggest the potential for gale force winds across the Papagayo region during the peak of this event. Elsewhere, light to moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the ITCZ region, with seas 6 ft or less through the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop intermittently across the Gulf of Panama through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Deep layered troughing extending from the mid-latitudes south- southwest into the tropics has swept across the Hawaiian Islands the past few days, and is currently across western portions of the discussion area between 135W and 145W. A 1008 mb surface low developed Monday from this feature, and is currently near 22.5N137.5W. Global models and earlier scatterometer data indicated 20 to 30 kt winds on the eastern side of the low. Seas are 8 to 9 ft from roughly 20N to 26N west of 130W. The low will shift southeast through the next 24 to 36 hours, dissipating by 48 hours. A cold front approaching the northwest corner of the discussion area will weaken and slowly stall through Wednesday night, before dissipating thereafter. This front will usher in another round of northwest swell with seas building to 11 ft near 30N140W by Thursday morning. More tranquil conditions are then expected through Friday evening. Conditions will then go down hill across the northwest portion of the discussion area late Friday night through the weekend, as a new surface low moves by just north of the area, brining increasing winds and building seas on the south side of it. $$ LEWITSKY