000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030941 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jan 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough reaches from 09N73W to 10N85W to 06N91W. The ITCZ extends from 05N94W to 06N105W to 06.5N121W to low pres near 13.5N131.5W. No significant convection observed east of 120W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 240 nm N and 360 nm SE quadrants of low pres near 13.5N131.5W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak 1021 mb high pressure is centered just west of Baja California Norte near 29.5N118W and is producing light to gentle northerly winds across the Pacific waters of Baja north of Punta Eugenia, and moderate NW to N winds across the waters south of Punta Eugenia. Seas across this area are running 3-6 ft in NW swell per evening altimeter data. The high pressure will remain in place through Wednesday night, with the pressure gradient tightening slightly tonight through Wednesday night to support moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Baja California waters. Inside the Gulf of California moderate northerly winds prevail across the southern waters tonight and spread to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, while winds are light and variable across the northern gulf. As the pressure gradient tightens tonight through Wednesday night, northerly winds will spread down the entire length of the gulf. Winds will increase to 20-25 kt across southern portions Wednesday night, where seas will build 5-8 ft by early Thursday morning. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle breezes continue tonight. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will spill across the gulf beginning this afternoon through Thursday morning, and maximize at late night and early morning. Looking ahead, global models are coming into better agreement regarding a strong cold front forecast to move through the Gulf of Mexico Friday and Saturday. A very strong and broad gale force gap wind event is expected across the Tehuantepec region by late Saturday afternoon, with the potential to reach storm force winds Sunday. Elsewhere between Cabo Corrientes and the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas primarily in northwest swell will prevail through Friday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds will continue through the Gulf of Papagayo and extend offshore of the coast of Nicaragua for the next few nights and mornings, with winds diminishing each afternoon. The overnight gap winds will abate slightly Friday through Saturday as the strong cold front begins to move across the Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, strong high pressure behind the Gulf of Mexico cold front will induce strong gap winds across all of the typical gap wind areas of central America Sunday through early next week, including the Gulf of Panama. Global models suggest the potential for gale force winds across the Papagayo region during the peak of this event. Elsewhere, light to moderate south to southwest winds will prevail south of the ITCZ, with seas 6 ft or less through the end of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop intermittently across the Gulf of Panama through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Deep layered troughing extending from the mid latitudes S-SW into the tropics has swept across the Hawaiian Islands the past few days and is currently across W portions of the discussion area between 135W and 145W. A 1006 mb surface low developed Monday from this feature, and is currently near 23N138.5W. Global models and scatterometer data tonight suggest that south to southeast winds of 20-25 kt are occurring within about 300 nm to the east and southeast of this low. This is aiding in ample low level moisture rising from the tropics and interacting with the upper trough to produce scattered moderate convection occurring from 180 nm to 480 nm across the eastern quadrant of the low. Further southeast, a 1012 mb low has developed along the ITCZ near 13.5N131.5W, where abundant tropical moisture is converging to produce scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection within 240 nm across the north and 360 nm across the southeast quadrants. The northern-most low and all of this associated weather will gradually shift north and northeast over the next 48 hours and slowly weaken, before stalling across the far northern waters Wednesday night and Thursday. Seas near the northern-most low are running 8-10 ft tonight and will begin to mix with northerly swell moving into northern waters to increase seas to 8-11 ft Tuesday night through Wednesday. A cold front approaching the NW corner of the discussion area will introduce another round of NW swell on Wednesday night. Seas in that area will build 8 to 11 ft by Thursday morning. $$ Stripling