000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030309
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
034 UTC Tue Jan 3 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough reaches from 05N77W to 04N88W to 04N92W. The
intertropical convergence zone continues from 04N92W to 06N121W
to 13N134W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
observed within 90 nm either side of a line from 08N128W to
15N132W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Weak 1020 mb high pressure centered west of Baja California Norte
near 28N119W has introduced a light to gentle wind regime.
Northwest swell along the western flank of Baja California will
continue to subside through Wednesday. The high pressure will
remain in place through Wednesday night and support moderate to
fresh northerly winds off the Baja California coast and along the
Gulf of California from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle breezes will
continue until Tuesday morning. Fresh to strong northerly gap
winds will pulse Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, then again
to a lesser extent Wednesday night and Thursday night. Looking
ahead, there is general agreement among global models regarding a
strong cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico, and the
likelihood of gap winds to gale force by late Saturday, with
slight differences as to precise timing.

Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas primarily
in northwest swell will prevail through Friday.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo
and along the coast of Nicaragua tonight and Tuesday night. The
overnight gap winds will abate slightly through Friday as high
pressure north of the area weakens. Stronger overnight gap winds
will return around the end of the week as strong high pressure
builds behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico.

Elsewhere, winds will remain 20 kt or less, with seas capped
below 8 ft through the end of the week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will persist south of the Gulf of Panama through the
end of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

An elongated area of surface low pressure with a central pressure
of 1006 mb has entered the western waters from the SW and is
centered near 22N139W. Tropical moisture continues to converge
along the east flank of the elongated troughing, but has begun to
decrease in areal coverage and intensity. Scattered moderate
convection reaches eastward into the discussion area to 131W. The
low and attendant area of moisture and weather will continue
tracking northeastward during the next few days, as the low
gradually weakens. East to southeast winds of 20-25 kt will
prevail up to 480 nm east of the low through Tuesday before winds
weaken below 20 kt Tuesday afternoon. Seas across this area of
8-10 ft tonight will begin to mix with northerly swell moving into
northern waters to increase seas to 8-11 ft Tuesday night through
Wednesday. A cold front approaching the NW corner of the
discussion area will introduce another round of NW swell on
Wednesday night. Seas in this area could build to 11 ft by
Thursday morning.

$$
cam