000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2032 UTC Mon Jan 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough reaches from 07N77W to 05N80W to 05N92W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 05N92W to 06N121W to 11N132W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 03N to 06N between 79W and 84W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within an area bounded by a line from 08N126W to 16N138W to 24N135W to 08N126W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak 1020 mb high pressure centered west of Baja California Norte near 29n119w has introduced a light to gentle wind regime. Northwest swell along the western flank of Baja California will continue to subside through Wednesday. The high pressure will remain in place through mid week and support moderate to fresh northerly winds off the Baja California coast and along the Gulf of California from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle breezes will continue until Tuesday morning. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will pulse Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, then again to a lesser extent Wednesday night and Thursday night. Looking ahead, there is general agreement among global models regarding a strong cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico, and the likelihood of gap winds to gale force by late Saturday, with slight differences as to precise timing. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes prevail with 3 to 5 ft seas primarily in northwest swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo and along the coast of Nicaragua tonight and early Tuesday. The overnight gap winds will abate slightly through mid week as high pressure north of the area weakens. Stronger overnight gap winds will return later in the week as strong high pressure builds behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, winds will remain 20 kt or less, with seas staying below 8 ft through the end of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist south of the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Jet dynamics aloft along a vigorous upper-level trough shifting east of Hawaii have induced an elongated area of low pressure at the surface, with a central low pressure center of 1008 mb near 22N139W. Abundant tropical moisture is converging along the east flank of the elongated troughing across the area. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection reaches eastward into the discussion area to 127W. The low and attendant area of moisture and weather will shift northeastward during the next few days, as the low gradually weakens. East to southeast winds of 20-25 kt will prevail up to 450 nm east of the low through Tuesday before winds weaken below 20 kt Tuesday afternoon. Seas across this area of 8-10 ft tonight will begin to mix with northerly swell moving into northern waters to increase seas to 8-11 ft Tuesday night through Wednesday. A cold front approaching the NW corner of the discussion area will introduce another round of NW swell on Wednesday night. Seas in this area could build to 11 ft by Thursday morning. $$ cam