000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021535 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1535 UTC Mon Jan 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough reaches from 06N77W to 04N90W to 05N94W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 05N94W to 06N98W to 05N108W to 11N134W. Scattered moderate convection from 04N to 06N between 78W and 82W. Scattered moderate to strong convection within area bounded by 20N137W to 08N123W to 14N138W to 20N137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front moving southeast across the central and southern portions of Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California has dissipated. Strong winds along this front have diminished as well as weak 1018 mb high pressure has followed the front off Baja California Norte. Northwest swell with seas reaching 8 ft lingering off Baja California will subside through early afternoon. The high pressure will persist in place through mid week supporting moderate to fresh northerly winds off the Baja California coast and along the Gulf of California. Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle breezes will continue through Tuesday morning. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will pulse Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, then again to a lesser extent Wednesday night and Thursday night. Looking ahead, there is general agreement among global models regarding a strong cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico, and the likelihoodof gap winds to gale force by late Saturday, with slight differences as to precise timing. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes prevail with 3 to 5 ft seas primarily in northwest swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of Nicaragua tonight and early Tuesday. The overnight gap winds will be slightly less through mid week as the high pressure north of the area weakens. Stronger overnight gap winds will return later in the week as strong high pressure builds behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, winds will remain 20 kt or less, with seas staying below 8 ft through the end of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist south of the Gulf of Panama. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Jet dynamics aloft along a vigorous upper-level trough shifting east of Hawaii have induced an elongated area of low pressure at the surface, with a central low pressure center of 1008 mb near 21N140W. Abundant tropical moisture is converging along the east side of the elongated troughing across the area and extends eastward into the discussion area to 130W. The low and this entire area of moisture and weather will shift northeastward over the next few days, and gradually weaken. East to southeast winds of 20-25 kt will prevail within 240 nm east of the low through Tuesday before winds weaken below 20 kt. Seas across this area will build to 8-10 ft by tonight and then begin to mix with northerly swell moving into northern waters to increase seas to 8-11 ft Tuesday night through Wednesday. $$ CHRISTENSEN