000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020958
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jan 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough reaches from 07.5N75W to 05N94W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N95W to 07.5N117W to 10N130W to 14N140W.
Widely scattered moderate to strong convection is present from
01N to 07N east of 81W. Scattered strong convection is noted
from 08.5N to 14N between 124W and 134W, and from 12N to
21N west of 136W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle breezes will
continue through Tuesday morning. Fresh to strong northerly gap
winds are then expected to develop across the gulf during the
day Tuesday and continue through Wednesday before becoming light
to moderate and variable. A strong cold front moving into the
Gulf of Mexico Friday through the weekend could introduce
northerly gales across the Gulf of Tehuantepec on
Saturday.

A weakening cold front has moved southward across the
northeastern waters, across the Baja California peninsula and
the north half of the Gulf of California during the past 24-36
hours. The front has stalled across the central gulf and extends
from southern portions of Sonora southwest across the gulf and
Baja peninsula along about 26N, then extends NW to near 28N124W.
Fresh northerly winds are found across the southern waters of
the gulf and extends to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, while winds
have already shifted southerly across north portions of the
gulf. The front will continue weakening as it continues
southeastward and will dissipate over the waters just south of
Gulf of California late tonight. W to NW winds behind the front
across the Pacific waters have veered N to NW and decreased to
to around 10-15 kt tonight. Weak high pressure moving in from
the west will maintain this regime of light to gentle winds from
the NNW through Tuesday. The ridge will strengthen a bit
Wednesday and Wednesday night and cause NNW winds to become
moderate. NW swell generated behind the front will propagate SE
across the Pacific waters and along Baja California Norte as
well, with seas remaining 5-8 ft through tonight, then gradually
subside to 4-6 ft by Wednesday.

Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes prevail with 3 to 5 ft seas
primarily in northwest swell.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds over the Gulf of
Papagayo have diminished to moderate to fresh. This slightly
weaker wind pattern will remain in place through Thursday. Fresh
to strong gap winds could return Thursday night or Friday.

Elsewhere, winds will remain 20 kt or less, with seas staying
below 8 ft through the end of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

An area of complex seas is lingering well downwind of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec and extends westward across the trade wind belt.
Northeast to east wind swell are mixing with longer period
northwest swell to produce seas around 8 ft from 06.5N to 09N
between 107W and 112W, and from 07N to 17.5N west OF 118W. The
area of 8 ft seas in this area is expected to shift westward to
115W and remain 7-8 ft through Tuesday.

Weak ridging extending SE from 32N132W to 22N111W is supporting
moderate to fresh trade wind flow W of 115W and N of the ITCZ to
25N. Convergence of these trade winds is generating an area of
scattered strong convection north of the ITCZ from 08.5N to 14N
between 124W AND 134W. 

Farther west, jet dynamics aloft along a vigorous upper-level
trough shifting east of Hawaii have induced an elongated area of
low pressure at the surface, with a central low pressure center
of 1009 mb near 205N142.5W. Abundant tropical moisture is
converging along the east side of the elongated troughing across
the area and extends eastward into the discussion area to 136W.
The low and this entire area of moisture and weather will shift
northeastward over the next few days, and gradually weaken.
Looks for east to southeast winds of 20-25 kt to prevail within
240 nm east of the low through Tuesday before winds weaken below
20 kt. Seas across this area will build to 8-10 ft by tonight
and then begin to mix with northerly swell moving into northern
waters to increase seas to 8-11 ft Tuesday night through
Wednesday. 

$$
Stripling