000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020325
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
109 UTC Mon Jan 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough reaches from 07N77W to 05N91W to 06N94W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 07N between 80W
and 85W. The ITCZ extends from 06N94W to 08N124W to 13N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present
within 120 nm either side of a line from 09N125W to 15N140W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle breezes will
continue through Tuesday morning. Fresh to strong northerly gap
winds are expected Tuesday night. A strong cold front moving into
the Gulf of Mexico could introduce near gale N winds to the Gulf
of Tehuantepec on Thursday night.

A weakening cold front is moving southward along the Baja
peninsula. The front is near the boundary between Baja California
Norte and Baja California Sur. The front will continue weakening as
it continues southeastward along the Baja California peninsula
and dissipate over the southern Gulf of California later tonight.
W to NW winds in the vicinity of the front have already decreased
to between moderate and fresh speeds. Weak high pressure moving in
from the west will introduce a regime of light to gentle winds
from the NNW Monday through Tuesday. The ridge will strengthen a
bit Wednesday and Wednesday night and cause NNW winds to become
moderate. NW swell generated behind the front will propagate SE
along Baja California Norte as well, but seas will remain between
5 and 7 ft tonight, then gradually subside to between 4 and 6 ft
by Wednesday.

Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes prevail with 3 to 5 ft seas
primarily in northwest swell.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds over the Gulf of
Papagayo have diminished to moderate to fresh. This slightly
weaker wind regime will remain in place through Thursday. Fresh to
strong gap winds could return on Thursday night.

Elsewhere, winds will remain 20 kt or less, with seas staying
below 8 ft through the end of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A small area of complex seas is lingering well downwind of the
Gulf of Tehuantepec across the trade wind belt. Northeast to east
wind swell are mixing with longer period northwest swell to
produce seas around 8 ft from 07N to 09N between 108W and 113W.
Seas in this area are expected to subside below 8 ft on Monday
evening as swell decay.

Weak ridging extending SE from 32N132W to 22N111W is supporting
moderate to fresh trade wind flow W of 115W and N of the ITCZ to
25N. Convergence of these trade winds is generating an area of
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection along the ITCZ
within 120 nm either side of a line from 09N125W to 15N140W. Seas
around 8 ft are noted in this area west of 132W.

Farther west, jet dynamics aloft along a vigorous upper-level trough
east of Hawaii are inducing 1009 mb low pressure near 20N143W.
The low will weaken as it drifts northeast, eventually reaching
27N131W as a 1015 mb low pressure area on Wednesday morning. The
gradient between the low and higher pressure farther east will
support fresh to strong winds and seas to 10 ft in the east
quadrant of the low within 300 nm. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the low through Tuesday.

$$
cam