000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2022 UTC Sun Jan 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough reaches from 05N76W to 06N84W to 05N89W to 06N95W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 06N east of 82W. ITCZ extends from 06N95W to 10N128W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 09N to 12N between 125W and 137W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle breezes are expected through Tuesday morning. Moderate northerly gap winds will begin Tuesday afternoon and continue through mid week, with maximum winds of 25-30 kt occurring each early morning. A strong cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico could introduce gales to the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Thursday night. A cold front is moving southward along the Baja peninsula and is nearing the boundary between Baja California Norte and Baja California Sur. The front will begin to weaken as it continues southeastward along the Baja California peninsula tonight. W to NW winds in the vicinity of the front have decreased from between fresh to strong to between moderate and fresh. NW swell generated behind the front will propagate SE along Baja California Norte as well, but seas will remain between 5 and 7 ft tonight, then subside through Monday night. Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes prevail with 3 to 5 ft seas primarily in northwest swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of papagayo have diminished to moderate to fresh. This slightly weaker wind regime will remain in place through Thursday. Fresh to strong gap winds could return on Thursday night. Elsewhere, winds will remain 20 kt or less, with seas staying below 8 ft through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Winds and seas north of 25N and east of 130W are decreasing as the front continues southeast and begins to weaken. Weak ridging building in to the west of the front is supporting moderate to fresh trade wind flow farther south near the ITCZ. Convergence of these trade winds is enhancing an area of scattered moderate to strong convection along the ITCZ from 09N to 12N between 125W and 137W. Seas to 9 ft are noted from 13N to 20N between 132W and 140W, likely due to moderate to fresh trade wind flow and an added component of longer period northwest swell, which will subside through Monday night. Farther west, jet dynamics aloft along a sharp upper trough east of Hawaii is supporting 1009 mb low pressure near 18N144W. The low will weaken as it drifts northeast, eventually reaching 27N131W as a 1015 mb low pressure area by mid week. The gradient between the low and higher pressure farther east will support fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft within 180 nm of the low pressure. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the low through Tuesday. $$ cam