000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011812 RRA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1517 UTC Sun Jan 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A weak monsoon trough reaches from 06N78W to 07N92W. ITCZ extends
from 07N92W to 06N100W to 10N125W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate
to strong from 04N to 06N east of 82W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is present from 09N to 12N between 130W and
140W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle breezes are
expected through tonight. Moderate northerly gap winds will begin
Tuesday morning and continue through mid week, with maximum winds
of 25-30 kt occurring each early morning. 

A cold front is moving into the waters off Baja California Norte
and the far northern portion of the Gulf of California this
morning. The front will weaken as it reaches central portions of
the Gulf and the Baja California peninsula this evening. Strong
westerly winds accompany the front over the northern Gulf of
California and off Baja California Norte through tonight.
Northwest swell will propagate off Baja California Norte as well,
but remain 5 to 7 ft and subside through Monday.

Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes prevail with 3 to 5 ft seas
primarily in northwest swell.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds will continue across
and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo tonight before a slightly
weaker wind regime sets up during the middle of next week. These
gaps winds will maximize to around 25 kt during the late night
through morning hours before diminishing by afternoon.

Elsewhere, winds will remain 20 kt or less, with seas staying
below 8 ft through the end of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The western end of a cold front is moving through the waters
north of 25N and east of 120W, followed by a large area of
northwest swell with seas of 8 to 10 ft north of 25N bewteen 120W
and 130W. This swell will decay below 8 ft through early Monday as
the front continues southeast and weakens. Weak ridging to the
west of the front is supporting moderate to fresh trade wind flow
farther south near the ITCZ. Convergence of these trade winds is
enhancing an area of scattered moderate to strong convection along
the ITCZ from 09N to 12N between 130W and 140W. Seas to 9 ft are
noted from 14N to 20N between 132W and 140W, likely due to
moderate to the fresh trade wind flow and an added component of longer
period northwest swell, subsiding through tonight.

Farther west, jet dynamics aloft along a sharp upper trough near
Hawaii is supporting 1009 mb low pressure near 16N145W. The low
pressure will weaken as it drifts northeast, eventually reaching
27N130W as 1015 mb low pressure area by mid week. The gradient
between the low pressure and higher pressure farther east will
support fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft within 180 nm of
the low pressure and scattered showers and thunderstorms through
Tuesday.

$$
CHRISTENSEN