000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281003
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Dec 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure building north
of the area has further increased the gradient in the Chavela
pass, thus supporting gale force winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this morning. Gale winds will continue to pulse
though the next 48 hours. These winds will generate a plume of 8
to 14 ft seas extending several hundred miles from shore. Please
see latest National Hurricane Center high seas forecast
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for further details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The Monsoon Trough extends from 06N77W to 06N86W to 05N96W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N96W to 10N104W to 12N115W. A surface trough
extends from 15N117W to 08N117W. The ITCZ resumes from 08N121W
TO 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm N of
the ITCZ W of 125W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see special features for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec
gale-force wind event. Fresh to strong northwest winds will
pulse over the Gulf of California through the next 42 hours.
Elsewhere, winds will remain 20 kt or less, with seas below 8 ft
through the end of the week.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds will pulse over the Gulf of Papagayo the next several
nights, peaking to near 25 kt during the overnight hours as the
gap winds are enhanced by nocturnally induced drainage flow. Winds
will decrease to 20 kt during the late afternoon and early evening
hours. Elsewhere, winds will remain 20 kt or less, with seas below
8 ft through the end of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface trough extends from 27N124W to 25N123W to 22N124W. The
pressure gradient between a high pressure centered northwest of
the area and lower pressure south of it is supporting fresh to
strong winds mainly northwest of the trough. A northwest swell
with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range are associated with this
system. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure
discussed above and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ
is supporting fresh trades over the western waters west of 125W.
Northwesterly swell is mixing with northeasterly generated wind
waves to produce seas greater than 8 ft over much of the
forecast waters north of 05N and west of 122W. The trough will
prevail across the northern portion of the basin the next two
days. As the area of high pressure weakens through the week,
winds will diminish and seas will subside. Winds are expected to
diminish below advisory criteria tonight, while the areal extent
of seas 8 ft or greater will continue to decrease through the
weekend.

$$
Ramos