000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252136 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Dec 25 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 09N84W to 06N94W. The ITCZ axis continues from 06N94W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 120W and 127W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Generally light winds this afternoon will increase to fresh overnight into Monday. High pressure building north of the area will tighten the pressure gradient over the area. Gap winds will strengthen Monday night into Tuesday, and further increase to gale force Tuesday evening, then continue into the New Years weekend. The persistent strong gap winds will support a plume of 8 to 14 ft seas extending several hundred miles from shore beginning Tuesday night. Gulf of California: Strong northwest winds will develop late Monday as high pressure builds north of the area over the Great Basin. Fresh to strong northwest winds will extend down the length of the Gulf of California through late in the week. Northwesterly swell with 8 to 12 ft seas off the coast of Baja California Norte will subside below 8 ft Monday as it propagates southward. A cold front will approach the Baja California waters early in the week, but stall west of the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through Monday morning. Building high pressure north of the area will tighten the pressure gradient over the area, and strengthen Papagayo winds Monday night into Tuesday. Elsewhere across the region, winds will remain 20 kt or less, with seas below 8 ft through early next week. Moderate northerly winds are possible in the Gulf of Panama during overnight and early morning hours. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Northwest swell with 8-11 ft seas will sweep across the area north of 20N and east of 125W through early Monday. A cold front will move south of 30N tonight, accompanied by strong SW winds. 8 to 12 ft seas associated with the front will propagate into the area, covering the area north of 25N and west of 120W by late Monday. Low pressure along the front will move south of 30N Monday night, then stall and weaken to a trough near 27N125W by late Tuesday. The gradient between this low pressure/trough and strong high pressure to the northwest will allow a new round of strong northerly winds with 10 to 13 ft seas over the area from 25N to 30N between 127W and 133W through mid week. High pressure building behind the front will support fresh to strong trades from 10N to 20N and west of 125W into mid week. $$ Mundell