000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251511 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1314 UTC Sun Dec 25 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N94W. The intertropical convergence zone axis continues from 06N94W to 05N119W to 07N127W to beyond 07n140w. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 87W and 91W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 07N to 13N between 119W and 127W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Generally light winds will prevail in the afternoon, and will increase to moderate to fresh overnight into Monday. High pressure building north of the area will help for a tighter pressure gradient over the area. Gap winds will strengthen by Monday night into Tuesday morning, and further increase to gale force late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The persistent strong gap winds will support a plume of seas in the 8 to 14 ft range extending several hundred miles from shore beginning Tuesday night. Gulf of California: Strong northwest winds will develop late Monday as high pressure builds north of the area over the Great Basin. Fresh to strong northwest winds will extend down the length of the Gulf of California through late in the week. Northwesterly swell with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range prevail off the coast of Baja California Norte. The swell will subside below 8 ft as it propagates southward along the coast of Baja California through early Monday. A cold front will approach the waters off Baja California early in the week, but stall west of the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo through Monday morning. Building high pressure north of the area will tighten the pressure gradient over the area. This will strengthen winds over the Gulf of Papagayo Monday night into Tuesday. Elsewhere across the region, winds will remain 20 kt or less, with seas below 8 ft through early next week. Moderate northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama during the overnight and early morning hours. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Northwest swell with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range will spread across the area north of 20N and east of 125W through early Monday. A cold front will move south of 30N late today, accompanied by strong winds. Seas of 8 to 12 ft associated with the front will propagate into the area. The swell will covering the area north of 25N and west of 120W by late Monday. Weak low pressure along the front will move south of 30N Monday night, then will stall and weaken to a trough near 27N125W by late Tuesday. The gradient between this low pressure/trough and strong high pressure to the northwest will allow a new round of strong northerly winds with 10 to 13 ft seas over the area from 25N to 30N between 127W and 133W through mid week. The high pressure building behind the front will support fresh to strong trade wind flow from 10N to 20N and west of 125W into mid week. $$ AL