000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250910 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0910 UTC Sun Dec 25 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N92W. The intertropical convergence zone axis continues from 06N92W to 08N120W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 14N between 118W and 129W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong gap winds through early this morning will diminish as local overnight drainage effects taper off. Generally light winds in the afternoon will become moderate to fresh overnight gap winds into Monday. High pressure building north of the area will allow strong gap winds again by Monday night into Tuesday morning. This pattern will allow these winds to persist through Tuesday, then intensify into gale force wind late Tuesday into early Wednesday, and again Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will persist over the Gulf of Mexico into the weekend. Persistent strong gap winds will support a plume of 8 to 14 ft seas several hundred miles from shore beginning Tuesday night. Gulf of California: Recent scatterometer data indicates strong westerly winds over the northern Gulf of California, associated with a cold front now passing through the central Gulf of California. These winds will diminish to below 20 kt later this morning as the front continues southward and weakens. Strong northwest winds will develop late Monday as high pressure builds north of the area over the Great Basin. Fresh to strong northwest winds will progress down the length of the Gulf of California through late in the week. Strong northwest winds are noted off the coast of Baja California Norte, following a cold front now moving into the waters off Baja California Sur. The winds are accompanied by 8 to 12 ft northwest swell with periods of 12 to 14 seconds. The winds will diminish later today as the front moves farther to the south and weakens. The swell will decay below 8 ft as it propagates southward along the coast of Baja California through early Monday. Another front will approach the waters off Baja California early in the week, but stall west of the area. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh gap winds are expected to pulse through Monday morning. Building high pressure north of the area will allow winds to increase across the Gulf of Papagayo to a fresh to strong breeze Monday night into Tuesday. Elsewhere across the region, winds will remain 20 kt or less, with seas below 8 ft through early next week. Moderate northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama during the overnight and early morning hours. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front reaching from central Baja California Sur to 22N122W will weaken today as it continues to move southward. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will diminish today as a ridge builds behind the front along roughly 27N. Northwest swell of 8 to 10 ft accompanying the front will sweep across the area north of 20N and east of 125W through early Monday. Meanwhile a cold front will move south of 30N late today, accompanied by strong winds. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will accompany the front as well, covering the area north of 25N and west of 120W by late Monday. Weak low pressure along the front will move south of 30N Monday night, then will stall and weaken to a trough near 27N125W by late Tuesday. The gradient between this low pressure/trough and strong high pressure to the northwest will allow a new round of strong northerly winds with 10 to 13 ft seas over the area from 25N to 30N between 127W and 133W through mid week. The high pressure building behind the front will support fresh to strong trade wind flow from 10N to 20N and west of 125W into mid week, then diminishing as the low drifts southward and the pressure gradient weakens. $$ CHRISTENSEN