000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241526 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Dec 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 06N77W to 07N85W to 05N95W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 05N95W to 06N110W to 08N129W, then resumes W of a trough at 08N133W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N W of 130W. The surface trough extends from 12N130W to 08N131W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico along with local drainage effects continue to support fresh to strong gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, with seas to 8 ft. Winds and seas will diminish later today as the drainage effects cease. The high pressure will weaken today, but fresh gap winds will briefly occur through the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Sunday, and again early Monday. Building high pressure early next week will support increasing gap winds starting Monday night and early Tuesday, and continuing through mid week with gale force winds possible by Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, and again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The persistent strong gap winds will support a plume of 8 to 10 ft seas out to several hundred miles to the southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly as shorter period northeast swell mixed with longer period northwest swell. Winds and seas subside through late week as the high pressure again weakens north of the area. Gulf of California: A cold front is already reaching Baja California Norte. Strong southwest to west winds are expected ahead of the front across the northern Gulf of California north of 29.5N through tonight, reaching near gale force by late Saturday morning. There is enough of a fetch for seas to approach near 8 ft by afternoon over the far northeast corner of the Gulf of California. Then expect W-NW winds in the 20-30 kt range behind the front. These winds will diminish through early Sunday as the front moves east and weakens. Northwest winds increase to 20 to 25 kt along the length of the Gulf of California by late Monday as high pressure builds north of the area over the Great Basin, persisting through mid week. Elsewhere, a cold front will move east across the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California through early Sunday. Strong northwest winds will follow the front over waters off Baja California Norte through late today, then diminishing. Northwest swell will follow the front as well, bringing 8 to 12 ft seas off Baja California Norte and 8 to 10 ft seas off Baja California Sur through late Sunday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo on Monday morning. Building high pressure north of the area will allow winds to increase to a fresh to strong breeze across the Gulf of Papagayo Monday night into Tuesday. Elsewhere across the region, winds will remain 20 kt or less, with seas below 8 ft through early next week. Moderate northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama during the overnight and early morning hours. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is now moving across the N waters and extends from 30N118W to 24N130W to 26N140W. Fresh to strong NW winds and building seas up to 14 ft in NW swell follow the front forecast to reach a position from 31N111W to 26N114W to 23N120W to 22N136W this evening. The front will move E of area by early Saturday morning while dissipating across the forecast waters. High pressure building eastward behind the front to the north of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds from roughly 07N to 20N west of 125W over the next 48 hours. A second cold front will move south of 30N Sunday night into Monday morning. Strong NW winds and building seas of 13-14 ft will also follow this front. While the current round of northwest swell decays below 8 ft north of 20N by late Sunday, a new round of northerly swell behind the front will move into the region. The front will sag southward, with the parent low pressure moving into the forecast waters by early Monday afternoon. This will enhance the pressure gradient north of 25N and west of 130W Monday night into Tuesday. The trade wind flow farther south will persist into mid week, then weaken as high pressure north of the area dissipates ahead of the next approaching front in the north central Pacific. $$ GR