000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0915 UTC Sat Dec 24 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N82W to 06N94W. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 06N94W to 08N115W to 08N135W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 north of the axis between 125W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure over the Gulf of Mexico along with local drainage effects continue to support strong gap winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, with seas to 8 ft. Winds and seas will diminish later today as the drainage effects cease. The high pressure will weaken today, but fresh gap winds will briefly occur through the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Sunday, and again early Monday. Building high pressure early next week will support increasing gap winds starting Monday night and early Tuesday, and continuing through mid week with gale force winds possible by Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, and again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The persistent strong gap winds will support a plume of 8 to 10 ft seas out to several hundred miles to the southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly as shorter period northeast swell mixed with longer period northwest swell. Winds and seas subside through late week as the high pressure again weakens north of the area. Gulf of California: Strong southwest to west winds will precede a front moving across the northern Gulf of California north of 29N through tonight, reaching near gale force by late morning. There is enough of a fetch for seas to approach near 8 ft by afternoon over the far northeast corner of the Gulf of California. These winds will diminish through early Sunday as the front moves east and weakens. Northwest winds increase to 20 to 25 kt along the length of the Gulf of California by late Monday as high pressure builds north of the area over the Great Basin, persisting through mid week. Elswhere, a cold front will move east across the Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California through Sunday. Strong northwest winds will follow the front over waters off Baja California Norte through late today, then diminishing. Northwest swell will follow the front as well, bringing 8 to 12 ft seas off Baja California Norte and 8 to 10 ft seas off Baja California Sur through late Sunday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh gap winds will pulse through the Gulf of Papagayo this morning, and again on Monday morning. Building high pressure north of the area will allow Winds to increase to a fresh to strong breeze across the Gulf of Papagayo Monday night into Tuesday. Elsewhere across the region, winds will remain 20 kt or less, with seas below 8 ft through early next week. Moderate northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama during the overnight and early morning hours. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong winds east of 125W follow a cold front reaching from southern California to 28N125W to 26N140W. Winds will diminish as the front moves east of the area tonight, but northwest swell of 8 to 12 ft envelopes much of the area north of 20N and east of 135W. High pressure building eastward behind the front to the north of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds from roughly 07N to 20N west of 130W. A second front will move south of 30N Sunday night into Monday morning. Strong winds associated with this front will impact the waters north of 25N between 125W and 135W Sunday night, then diminish through Monday. While the current round of northwest swell decays below 8 ft north of 20N by late Sunday, a new round of northerly swell behind the front moves into the region. The front will sag southward, with weak low pressure briefly forming near 25N125W by Monday night. This will enhance northwest gradient north of 25N and west of 125W Tuesday. The trade wind flow farther south persists into mid week, then weakens as high pressure north of the area dissipates ahead of the next approaching front in the north central Pacific. $$ CHRISTENSEN