000 AXPZ20 KNHC 172210 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Dec 17 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of California...A cold front has continued to move SE across northwest Mexico and Baja California Norte this afternoon, and had reached from 28N108.5W TO 25N112W, and across central portions of the Gulf of California. minimal gale force winds following the front this morning have diminished to 20-25 kt this afternoon. Seas remain very rough north of the Tiburon Basin, and are estimated at 6-8 ft. The front will continue moving southeastward and through the entire gulf basin by sunday morning, with NW to N winds gradually diminishing to 15-20 kt with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Strong winds are expected to increase again late Sunday afternoon as strong high pressure builds northwest of the area. These winds will increase to 20-30 kt across north portions of the gulf Sunday night through Monday morning, and could reach near gale force Monday afternoon across the far northern gulf with seas building to 9 ft, before diminishing late Monday into Tuesday. Looking ahead, this pattern will repeat again by late Tuesday through mid week. Gulf of Tehuantepec...A cold front will move through the entire western Gulf of Mexico Sunday and reach the western Bay of Campeche by the evening hours. Cooler, drier air behind the front will move across the isthmus of Tehuantepec into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sunday night, with winds reaching gale force before 1200 UTC Monday. A large plume of gale force winds will persist into early Wednesday across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas reaching as high as 18 ft by late Tuesday. Winds diminish below gale force with subsiding seas through mid week as the airmass to the north modifies and shifts east. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia near 09N74W to 06.5N80W to 08N89W. The ITCZ continues from 08N89W to 06N100W to 09.5N115W to 07N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 116W and 123W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale warnings is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. See Special Features section above for details. Fresh to strong northerly winds follow a cold front extending from 25N112W TO 23N130W. These winds will spread southward behind the front along the Pacific coast of Baja California through this evening, with seas building to 5 to 8 ft. Winds and seas diminish through early Sunday as the front continues to push S of the Gulf of California. Elsewhere offshore of Mexico, and outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of California, gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas will persist. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected to pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and early morning hours through Monday, with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow. Seas should build 6-8 ft during the peak of each nights wind. A larger gap wind event appears to be in store for most of zone PMZ113 and southern portions of PMZ111 off El Salvador and Guatemala Monday night into Tuesday morning, as strong trade wind flow in the southwest Caribbean funnels across Central America. Marine guidance indicates fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Fonseca and the Gulf of Papagayo will extend westward to beyond 92W/93W by Tuesday morning, with seas building up to 10-11 ft W of 90W. Moderate northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama at that time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong 1037 mb high pressure northwest of the area will shift SE through Monday then stall N of 30N, which will allow northeast winds to increase across much of the area north of 10N through late Monday. Fresh to strong winds will cover the area from 07N to 28N west of 120W early next week between the high pressure to the north and a trough to the east. Seas will reach 10-13 ft W of 130W in this area with the added component of long period northwest swell. The winds will then diminish through mid week as the high pressure weakens and the trough dissipates. Seas of 8 to 9 ft will linger over much of the area west of a line from Baja California Norte to 05N140W through Tuesday. $$ Stripling