000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Dec 17 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of California...Northwest winds to minimal gale force
follow a cold front moving across NW Mexico to Baja California
Norte. There is enough of a fetch to support seas to 8 ft in
this area. In addition, strong west winds funneling through low
lying gaps are pushing into the Gulf of California ahead of the
front. These winds diminish early this afternoon as the front
continues to push S while weakening. Strong Winds increase again
to near gale force by Sunday afternoon as high pressure builds
north of the area. These winds will reach near gale force Monday
over the far northern Gulf of California with seas building to 8
ft, before diminishing late Monday into Tuesday. Looking ahead,
this pattern repeats by late Tuesday through mid week.

Gulf of Tehuantepec...A cold front will move through the western
Gulf of Mexico through late Sunday. Cooler, drier air behind the
front will move across the isthmus of Tehuantepec into the Gulf
of Tehuantepec Sunday night, with winds reaching gale force
before 1200 UTC Monday. A large plume of gale force winds will
persist into early Wednesday across the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
with seas reaching as high as 17 ft by late Tuesday. Winds
diminish below gale force with subsiding seas through mid week
as the airmass to the north modifies and shifts east.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia near 07N78W
to 06N90W. The ITCZ continues from 06N90W and extends west to
10N106W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 190 nm S of the monsoon trough east of 81W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale warnings is in effect for the Gulf of California and Gulf
of Tehuantepec. See Special Features section above for details.

Fresh to strong northerly winds follow a cold front extending
from 29N115W to 25N127W. These winds will spread southward
behind the front along the coast of Baja California through late
today, with seas building to 5 to 8 ft. Winds and seas diminish
through early Sunday as the front continues to push S while
weakening. 

Elsewhere offshore of Mexico, and outside of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec and Gulf of California, gentle to moderate breezes and
3 to 5 ft seas will persist.
     
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast winds are expected to pulse across the
Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight and early morning hours
through Monday, with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage
flow. Seas should build 6-8 ft during the peak of each nights
wind. A larger gap wind event appears to be in store for most of
zone PMZ113 and southern portions of PMZ111 off El Salvador and
Guatemala Monday night into Tuesday morning, as strong trade
wind flow in the southwest Caribbean funnels across Central
America. Marine guidance indicates fresh to strong winds across
the Gulf of Fonseca and the Gulf of Papagayo extending westward
to beyond 92W/93W by Tuesday morning, with seas building up to
10-11 ft W of 90W. Moderate northerly winds are expected across
the Gulf of Panama at that time.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong 1036 mb high pressure northwest of the area will shift E
to SE through Monday then stalls N of 30N, which will allow
northeast winds to increase across much of the area north of 10N
through late Monday. Fresh to strong winds will cover the area
from 16N to 26N west of 124W early next week between the high
pressure to the north and a trough to the east. Seas will reach
10 ft in this area with the added component of longer period
northwest swell. The winds diminish through mid week as the high
pressure weakens and the trough dissipates. Seas of 8 to 9 ft
will linger over much of the area west of a line from Baja
California Norte to 05N140W.
  
$$
RAMOS