000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130320
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Dec 13 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N82W to low pressure near
11N88W to 07N94W. The ITCZ continues from 07N94W to 09N100W to
11N126W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N TO
15N between 118W and 127W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong north winds continue north
of 15N with max seas to 6-7 ft. Residual high pressure over
southern Mexico will continue to weaken, allowing the winds to
diminish to 20 kt by Tuesday evening. The pressure gradient is
expected tighten again Thursday afternoon to produce gale force
winds Thursday evening through Friday. 

Moderate to fresh northwest winds in offshore waters north of
20N will become gentle to moderate through Thursday with 4-5 ft
seas. A cold front will extend from 31N116W to 25N125W Friday,
then sweep southeastward across the Baja Peninsula and NW Mexico
to extend from 26N109W to 18N123W Saturday. Model guidance shows
strong to near-gale west to northwest winds in the northern gulf
of California Friday night behind the front. Gentle to moderate
north to northwest winds will prevail south of Mazatlan through
Wednesday, becoming light Thursday and Friday. 
     
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak surface low moving off the Pacific coast of Nicaragua
near 11N88W will wove westward through Thursday night. Global
models show modest development of the low through Tuesday, then
weakening Wednesday and becoming a trough west of 100W. Latest
global model forecasts show highest winds in the north quadrant
of the low, but generally remaining 25 kt or less.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A broad surface ridge over the northern waters is anchored by a
high centered near 28N126W. Gentle to moderate north-northwest
flow is expected east of the high through Wednesday. Moderate to
fresh east to northeast trade winds are situated between the
ridge and the ITCZ, roughly from 10N-20N W of 125W. Low pressure
with a trailing frontal boundary is west-northwest of the area,
the front will briefly stall near far northwest waters Wednesday
with south to southwest winds of 20 to 25 kt and 8-10 ft seas
expected ahead of the boundary. Reinforcing cold air will push
the front east-southeastward across the northern waters Thursday
and Friday. NW swell generated behind the front will cause seas
north of 26N and west of 120W to build to 8-10 feet by Friday.
  
$$
Mundell