000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120320 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Dec 12 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N85W to 09N93W. The ITCZ continues from 09N93W to 08N104W to 10N119W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm of a line from 08N104W to 13N114W to 07N132W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong north winds continue this evening north of 15N with max seas to 8 ft. High pressure over southern and eastern Mexico will continue to weaken tonight, allowing winds to diminish to around 20 kt by Monday morning. Nocturnal max winds are expected to pulse to around 25 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec in drainage flow during the overnight hours each night Monday through Friday. NW winds in offshore waters north of 20N have become gentle to moderate with seas ranging between 3 to 5 ft. Light to gentle north winds will prevail S of 17N through Wednesday. Between 17N and Mazatlan, gentle to moderate northwest winds will prevail through Wednesday, then become light through Friday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh offshore winds are east of 90W in the Papagayo region with seas less than 8 ft. A surface low over southern Nicaragua will cross Central America early Monday. Global models indicate some modest development is likely as the low moves west Tuesday and Wednesday. Latest global model forecasts show associated winds remaining 25 kt or less. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge over NW forecast waters is anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 28N130W. Gentle to moderate north- northwest flow is expected east of the high through Wednesday. Moderate to fresh NE winds are between the ridge and north of the ITCZ W of 130W with combined seas to 8 ft. This area will shift west of 140W Monday. A stationary front and low pressure northwest of the area is weakening the ridge. The front will briefly stall near the far northwest waters Wed morning, then reinforcing cold air will push the front east-southeastward across northern waters Thursday and Friday. NW swell generated behind the front will build seas N of 26N and W of 120W to 8-10 feet by Friday morning. $$ Mundell