000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112144
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Dec 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 07N90W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N90W to 09N122W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm of a line from 08N104W to 13N112W to
08N130W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Near-gale northerly winds continue this
afternoon N of 15N with max seas to 11 ft. High pressure over
southern and eastern Mexico will weaken tonight, allowing winds
to diminish to around 20 kt by Monday morning. Nocturnal winds
are expected to pulse to around 25 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
in drainage flow during the overnight hours each night Monday
through Friday.

NW winds in offshore waters north of 20N have become gentle to
moderate with seas ranging between 3 to 5 ft. Light to gentle
winds will prevail S of 17N through Wednesday. Moderate to fresh
NW winds north of 22N along the west coast of Baja California
will continue through Monday, then diminish as the ridge weakens.
Between 17N and Mazatlan gentle to moderate northwest winds will
prevail through Wednesday, then become light through Friday.
     
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh offshore winds are east of 90W in the Papagayo region with
seas less than 8 ft. An easterly wave over the western Caribbean
will cross Central America early Monday. Global models indicate
low pressure development is likely along the wave axis as it
moves west, away from Costa Rica Tuesday and Wednesday. Model
consensus and climatology suggest this system will proceed as a
trough or as modest low pressure. The latest global model runs
indicate that associated winds should remain less than 25 kt.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A broad surface ridge over NW forecast waters is anchored by a
1026 mb high near 28N129W extending an axis to near 20N112W.
Gentle to moderate north-northwest flow is expected east of the
high through Wednesday. Moderate to fresh NE winds are between
the ridge and north of the ITCZ W of 126W with combined seas of
8 ft. This area will shift west of 140W Monday. A stationary
front and low pressure northwest of the area is weakening the
ridge. The front will stall near the far northwest waters Wed
morning, then reinforcing cold air will push the front east-
southeastward across northern waters Thursday and Friday. NW
swell generated behind the front will build seas N of 26N and W
of 120W to 8-10 feet by Friday morning.
  
$$
Mundell