000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Dec 11 2016 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force winds continue this morning N of 14.5N with seas up to 11 ft. High pressure over southern and eastern Mexico will continue to weaken today, thus diminishing the winds to near gale force this evening and fresh to strong by Monday morning with seas to 8 ft. North winds are still expected to pulse to around 25 kt over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in response to nocturnal drainage flow during the overnight hours each night Monday through Friday. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 07N90W to 05N100W. The ITCZ begins near 05N100W and continues along 09N110W to 08N122W to 06N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N E of 85W, from 04N to 07N between 90W and 96W, from 08N to 15N between 103W and 119W and from 05N to 09N W of 122W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure centered over NW forecast waters near 28N129W has weakened and NW winds over the forecast zones have diminished to gentle to moderate with seas ranging between 3 to 5 ft. Other from the Tehuantepec high wind and seas event, light to gentle winds will prevail S of 17N through Wednesday. On Thursday night, the passage of a low pressure to the south will result in NE to E moderate to locally fresh wind in zones 025 and 027 through Friday. Moderate to fresh NW winds north of 22N along the west coast of Baja California will continue through Monday, then diminish to moderate as the ridge weakens in response to an area of low pressure approaching from the NW. Between 17N and Mazatlan gentle to moderate northwest winds will prevail through Wednesday, then becomes light through Friday. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong offshore winds are east of 87W with seas less than 8 ft. An easterly wave over the western Caribbean will cross Central America early Monday. GFS model guidance indicates low pressure development along the wave axis as it moves westward away from Costa Rica on Tuesday and Wednesday. Model consensus and climatology suggest this system will proceed as a trough or as modest low pressure. The latest global model runs indicate that associated winds should remain less than 25 kt. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge is over NW forecast waters anchored by a 1024 mb high near 28N129W extending an axis to near 20N112W. Gentle to moderate north-northwest flow is expected east of the high through Wednesday. Moderate to fresh NE winds are between the ridge and north of the ITCZ W of 126W with combined seas of 8-9 ft. This area will shift westward and diminish in size until it disappears on Monday morning. Low pressure approaching the far northwestern waters is weakening the ridge, and will help maintain a relatively light wind regime in this area Tuesday through Friday. A cold front will enter the far northeast waters Wed morning, then weaken as it proceeds eastward toward Baja California Norte Thursday. NW swell generated to the N of the front will cause seas N of 26N and W of 127W to build to between 8 and 10 feet by Friday morning. $$ NR