000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090318
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Dec 9 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: North winds will increase to
minimal gale force overnight. Seas will quickly build to 12 ft
downstream of the gulf near 15N95W by sunrise Friday. The
gradient will continue to tighten Friday with winds increasing
to 45 kt by Friday night. Max seas will build to 16-18 ft by
early Saturday. Gale conditions will persist through sunrise on
Sunday, then pulse to 25-30 kt late Sunday night.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 07N95W to
09N105W. The ITCZ axis continues from 09N105W to 10N111W to
07N121W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection from 07N to
12N between 111W and 119W.
 
...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gulf of California: Scatterometer data from earlier today showed
moderate to fresh NW winds in the gulf. Winds will become fresh
to strong in the central gulf tonight, spreading south to 23N by
sunrise Friday. The pressure gradient will relax somewhat Friday
with moderate to fresh NW flow expected over the southern gulf
Friday night into early Saturday.
   
A ridge extending from 26N120W to 16N103W will shift southwest
Friday. Anticyclonic wind flow around the ridge will become
moderate to fresh west of the Baja Peninsula, and increase to a
locally strong northwest breeze N of 28N within 60 nm of the
coast Friday afternoon into Saturday. Seas will build to 7-8 ft
across the waters N of 30N with increasing winds.
     
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh offshore winds will
become fresh to strong E of 88W later tonight, and continue to
pulse to strong mainly during the overnight hours this weekend.
Seas will build to around 8 ft. An easterly wave moving through
the western Caribbean will cross Central America early Monday.
Model guidance indicates possible low pressure development along
the wave axis as it moves from zones PMZ113 to PMZ111 next week.

Mostly light to gentle northerly winds, and combined seas of 2
to 4 ft, are occurring elsewhere N of the monsoon trough, which
continues to meander along 09N. Light to moderate southwest flow
is observed from 05N to 09N, with combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in
southwest swell. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is expected
south of 05N the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

High pressure is centered near 29N124W with a ridge extending
southeast from the high. A dissipating stationary front is north
of the area. Gentle to moderate north-northwest flow is expected
northeast of the ridge this weekend and moderate to fresh trades
will prevail south of the ridge. Combined seas will build to 7-8
ft just north of the ITCZ axis late tonight through the weekend.
  
$$
Mundell